Will Trump’s Tariff Threat Reshape the Global Beef Trade
Larissa Alvarez, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, assesses the risks of proposed US tariffs on Brazilian beef exports.
Key Takeaways
Brazilian beef exports to the U.S. rose 33% in early 2025
Proposed tariffs could drive up U.S. prices and reduce Brazilian competitiveness
Brazil may seek to redirect exports to Japan, China and other Asian markets
Rising Pressure from Proposed Tariffs
Alvarez noted that the U.S. is Brazil’s second-largest beef market, especially important for high-value cuts. “From January to June 2025, Brazilian beef exports to the U.S. rose by 33%”, highlighting deepening trade ties. The proposed 50% tariff, layered over the existing 26.4% rate for exports above quota, would raise the total to 76.4%, reshaping cost structures significantly.
Impacts for U.S. Consumers
The consequences are not limited to Brazilian exporters. Alvarez pointed to past supply shocks, such as the avian flu outbreak, which drove up poultry prices. “That’s a great example of how supply shocks can ripple through the market”. Brazil has become the largest supplier of beef to the U.S. in 2025, overtaking Australia and Canada, thanks to competitive pricing. A steep tariff could push U.S. prices even higher.
Australia Could Gain from Market Shift
As Cincotta noted, analysts believe that Australia could benefit from the trade disruption. Alvarez agreed that market dynamics are already shifting. “In Australia, exporters are keeping a short position on forward bookings”, indicating strategic hesitation. She also highlighted falling cattle prices and delays in plant procurement as early warning signals from the physical market.
Brazil’s Contingency Plans
Brazil is considering diversification. “Japan is indeed a key focus” as its market nears final approval for Brazilian beef. Still, Alvarez emphasized that existing buyers such as China will play a crucial role. “The question becomes whether these established partners are willing and able to absorb the extra volume”, underscoring the uncertain road ahead.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Larissa Alvarez, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Meats & Livestock
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