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China & Courts Fight Back Against Trump Tariffs
By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
China & Courts Fight Back Against Trump Tariffs
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains how the new marketing year opens with mixed grain performance, stalled trade talks and tariff uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- Corn holds support on export demand while soybeans lack China buying
- Trade disputes, rare earth leverage and tariff rulings heighten risk
- Farmers face storage pressure and weak basis until demand adjusts
US Grain Markets Shift as New Marketing Year Begins
The new marketing year for corn, soybeans and other crops began on September 1, shifting market focus to fresh balance sheets. Suderman noted that corn “was climbing into positive territory” during the session thanks to solid export demand. Soybeans and wheat, however, remained under pressure, reflecting weaker commitments and heavier supply burdens.
China Absence Leaves US Soybean Exports Exposed
The major concern is the absence of Chinese buying. Suderman highlighted, “No record of a single bushel being purchased to this date.” Last year, nearly three-quarters of US soybean shipments to China occurred between September and early January. This year, China has relied on reserves and South American supply, reducing the urgency to source from the United States. Suderman warned that without those sales, surplus risks grow even with strong domestic biofuel demand.
SCO and BRICS Align Against US Trade Leverage
Talks between US and Chinese negotiators ended with no progress and both sides calling discussions “complicated.” Rare earth minerals remain a sticking point, as China controls around 90% of processed supply. At the same time, SCO and BRICS cooperation highlights efforts by China, Russia, India and Brazil to counter US tariff policy. Suderman cautioned, “I cannot emphasize enough the potential significance of this” after a US appeals court ruled that parts of Trump-era tariffs exceeded legal authority, introducing significant uncertainty.
Managing Storage Risk Becomes Critical for US Growers
With no Chinese demand and a large US harvest, storage becomes critical. Soybeans normally shipped by rail to Pacific Northwest ports now face limited bids. Basis is weak and could deteriorate further. Suderman advised producers to coordinate early with buyers and secure storage solutions, noting, “It is a year for getting base hits in your marketing.” Avoiding forced sales and managing carry opportunities will be essential for resilience until new demand develops.
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---- Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
- Currencies
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