Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, breaks down how weather, trade disputes and global supply dynamics are reshaping agricultural markets.
Bertrand Oesterle noted that U.S. corn yields have likely peaked after the August report, with weather and rust disease prompting downward revisions. Soybeans face similar pressure, with crop conditions weakening and export demand lagging. “The window of opportunity is basically getting shorter and shorter”.
Talks between the U.S. and China ended without progress, leaving soybean exports stalled. Instead, China is releasing reserves, raising doubts about near-term demand. This is significant given that the bulk of U.S. soybean exports to China traditionally occur between September and January.
Rapeseed and canola supplies are mixed, with Ukraine introducing a 10% export tax, Europe stabilising, and Canada and Australia reporting steady output. Wheat has come under heavy pressure, with French ending stocks at 20-year highs and Russian exports rising. Paris wheat futures are testing contract lows, adding stress for European farmers.
Bertrand Oesterle flagged key risks ahead including the upcoming USDA report, the winding down of harvest pressure, and the potential impact of La Niña weather patterns. Currency moves also matter, with a weaker dollar offering some support but euro strength challenging European exporters.
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Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
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A strong super El Niño has started, but the crop damage that would lift food prices is still expected to land between September and December. Indian wheat area and Southeast Asian palm oil production sit at the front of the transmission chain, with Brazil the larger unresolved question.
Damage to Black Sea ports has stalled grain exports, but the more serious risk is now forming on the farm. Collapsed farmgate prices and a Russian fuel crisis have put part of the wheat harvest in question.
August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.
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