Global Trade Tensions: BRICS Breakdown & Biofuel Roadblocks
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodity Economist, reviews BRICS divisions, US biofuel policy developments, and expectations for the grain and oilseed markets.
Key Takeaways
BRICS continues to struggle with unity on tariffs and sanctions
Uncertainty in US biofuel policy delays production and demand
WASDE report expected to cut US corn and soybean yield estimates
BRICS Unity Remains Weak
Suderman noted that repeated efforts by Xi Jinping to forge a stronger BRICS coalition against the West have fallen short. “The only thing that actually came out instead of a united statement of strategy to combat President Trump’s tariffs was simply a statement that we support unilateral policy”. Internal divisions between India, Brazil and China continue to limit the bloc’s influence.
Tariff Pressures Complicate Trade
The interview highlighted that rare earth minerals and technology remain at the center of US China trade tensions. With China controlling 90% of global processed rare earths, access remains a key negotiating factor. At the same time, new tariffs on India and Brazil have complicated relations within BRICS and dampened momentum for collective action.
Uncertainty in Biofuel Policy
Suderman explained that while biofuel policy has so far been supportive of US farmers, ongoing uncertainty weighs on the industry. “Right now there’s still a lot of production on the sideline waiting for more certainty on these items”. Pending decisions on refinery exemptions and feedstock credits are delaying investment and output.
Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Markets
Looking ahead to the WASDE report, expectations are for lower corn and soybean yields and adjustments to demand. With over 250 million bushels of soybean demand already lost to South American suppliers, the outlook remains pressured. Suderman noted that each month without Chinese buying further reduces US export prospects.
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