The cocoa market enters 2026 with a fragile balance between recovering crops and depleted stocks. West Africa remains at the center of this story, with Ghana and Ivory Coast responsible for most of the world’s supply. Traders are watching rainfall patterns, harvest yields, and disease pressure closely. The region’s next crop will decide whether prices ease or stay near historic highs.
Lucca Bezzon, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, explains how production trends and climate risks in West Africa are defining the outlook for cocoa in 2026.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Ghana and Ivory Coast together produce nearly 60% of global cocoa.
Weather conditions and crop diseases remain the dominant price drivers.
Low stock levels and irregular rainfall continue to shape trader sentiment.
West Africa’s weather patterns remain the single biggest factor in determining cocoa supply. Bezzon explained that “the main period for rains are between April and July” , and that the outcome during those months often sets the tone for the entire harvest. Good rainfall earlier in the year lifted expectations, but “between July and September rains have been sparse and irregular”. That uneven pattern has left producers cautious and traders wary of declaring a full recovery.
Cocoa Stocks Remain Critically Low
The region’s slow stock rebuild continues to limit downside pressure on prices. Bezzon noted that even with slight improvement, “stocks haven’t recovered yet”, keeping the market historically tight. Ghana and Ivory Coast’s performance will therefore determine whether 2026 brings a surplus or another year of tight supply. Until consistent yields and stable weather return, cocoa markets will remain highly sensitive to every update from West Africa’s fields.
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