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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

 

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Market sell off continues as grain and ration prices come into focus for margin pressure on the buy side. 

Key Points

  • The market continues to sell off – prices back again this week to new 6 month lows across most categories.
  • Price pressures are emerging across key feedlot inputs (Grains & ration more broadly) which is adding to the narrative of weaker rates.
  • Fuel excise cut working its magic, terminal gate Brisbane diesel prices hit new record highs today at $3.26/L
  • Fundamentals for the beef industry remain sound.

Supply

  • These short working weeks are masking the numbers of cattle ready to be sold – May will be a very large supply month across direct consignments, yardings and slaughter volumes.
  • A number of No Quotes still floating around in the market this week for feedlots, most yards now booked forwards 4 weeks – feedlots attempting to stay short where they can to monitor pricing movements but supply is plentiful currently.
  • In the event that feedlots continue to push back on direct consignment cattle, we may see a period of inflated saleyard yarding’s as producers look to utilise that channel to simply get cattle out the door.
  • As usual, the short weeks bring lumpy supply – particularly via the yards, expect big numbers to be sold next week out of the yards as producers look to get out before the market falls further – which will ultimately contribute to price pressure.

Demand

  • Delivered Downs SFW (feed wheat) rising above $400/mt is adding further pressure to feedlot’s profit margins, it also is another cog in explaining why we’ve seen the feeder price pull back.
    • Furthermore, ration price overall has risen quickly for feedlots with other key inputs contributing to this.
  • The real test for southern feedlot & processor demand is likely to begin over the next month to 6 weeks – as the south gets its real Autumn break in late April and supply begins to shorten, do the southern buyers come north and if so how far? Are they willing to absorb the freight bill to get cattle home?
    • The answer may lay in a softening cattle market actually allows more buying out of the north to secure supply, with the weaker cattle price offsetting the higher freight bill to get cattle home – one to watch.
  • Interest from the restockers has suddenly disappeared… driven by the reduction in slaughter & feeder rates producers aren’t desperate for cattle – the emotional side of markets playing a major role here in light cattle prices.

Price

  • Feeder grids continue to wind back on crossbred cattle, prices now at their lowest levels since late August 2025.
  • Angus to Flatback premiums in Winter likely to rise well over $1/kg lwt this year – due to the destocking coming out of the critical North West / New England regions of NSW which are massive carriers of Angus feeders.
    • Shorter supply will push the demand for black cattle higher at a critical time to coincide with strong demand from feedlots / brands to secure Angus feeders to exit programs and hit China in a box in Q1 2027.
  • Fuel excise cut working a treat… Terminal Gate diesel prices for Brisbane for Thursday 9th April now at record highs of $3.26/L
  • To me, it seems as if the market still has some way to run on this easing cycle, it isn’t finished yet and with a big May of supply to come further pressure could be expected – managing this risk is something you as readers should be considering, sellers particularly.

Weather

  • Rains again developing for the top half of QLD – this will further delay first round musters for the north and ultimately back up cattle supply to run all at once.
  • The south continuing to get patchy falls – with a wet end to April in line for these regions, it continues its very strong start to 2026 and recovery from drought.

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