Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Thu, 18 Jun 2026, 23:21

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Cattle markets continue their bull run as China safeguard quota limit officially hit.

Key Points

Bullock numbers in northern Australia have grown by 507,000 head in 12 months whilst northern cow numbers are up by nearly 1 million head year-on-year.
The end of the financial year + frosts arriving could spur higher supplies of cattle coming forwards, particularly out of QLD.
QLD Crossbred feeder prices are now at Decile 9 levels and the highest they’ve been in 4 years.

April Wave – MLA’s Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS)

Numbers of bullocks in northern Australia has increased by 56% or 507,000 head in the past 12 months as per MLA’s Beef Producer Intentions Survey.
- A clear indication that northern producers are opting to retain cattle to grow out to kill weights, in order to utilize the strength of the season.
Nationally, Year on year, the adult herd (not including calves) grew by 6.15% or 1.72 million head.
Cow numbers in the north are up 17% or 988,000 head, accounting for nearly 80% of the total year on year growth in the northern herd.
- What this tells you, alongside the moderation in growth of heifer numbers, is that the herd is continuing to expand strongly in the north but it is moderating, heifers are transitioning into the breeder herd as mature females, and more heifers are being turned off into feeder and other markets.
In the south, 43% of the growth in numbers has been accounted for by steers under 2, clearly supporting the anecdotal evidence that producers are trading or restocking their way out of drought, not rebuilding.

Supply

As noted before I left, with the continuation of good falls and a rising market, supply has continued to be hard to come by – across all channels but particularly direct where the bulk of transactions are made. `
- A number of processors having booked cattle on space and feedlots having accessibility issues only compounded the situation of a rising market.
Month to date beef export numbers in line with another very large month, 145,000 mt + likely on the cards, and at or near record levels seen in May.
Monitor the end of the financial year + frosts & a cold snap occurring in the next few weeks– the combination of these factors may bring an uptick in cattle supply across this period – particularly out of QLD.
- A situation to keep an eye on.

Demand

Due to the shortness of numbers generally – demand remains strong from buyers across the board à clearly basically all buyers have been caught very short on supply.
- The uptick in the October 100 day kill contract, coupled with a sharp easing in the past fortnight in grain prices, is bringing back into line margins for feedlots, these dynamics should ease margin pressure in that space.
With markets rising so strongly, there’s been some discussions which suggest a tentativeness from producers to step back into purchasing light stock – a good indication of the underlying sensitivity to volatility producers have experienced this year.

Price

The next fortnight could deliver the peak in this little cycle following its sharp rally à prices are stabilizing and with the true onset of winter due next week, its likely that will suck some demand out of the market and push higher supply.
Crossbred feeder prices at Decile 9 levels, or the highest in 4 years (since June 2022).
- Although this time the rally in rates hasn’t been driven by rebuild, rather its expanded capacity, shorter supply and southern buying competition that are the drivers.
When does crunch time come for cow prices? With Brazil nearly on the doorstep of hitting its safeguard limit with China, the rediversion of that product towards the US is likely to pressure cow values here locally due to increased competition in that market – one to watch.
Interestingly, Dairy cow rates haven’t rallied nearly as much as beef cows.

Weather

General model alignment for further rain across the broader east over the weekend following this north west cloud band– cold weather forecast to settle in once that dissipates.

Meats & Livestock

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