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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Intense market volatility leads to cautious producer buying patterns as slaughter throughput suggests margin compression

Key Points

  • Large supplies of cattle can be expected for the remainder of this year – supply won’t be the issue but margins and economics through the supply chain will be the determinant of overall production.
  • Producer demand remains strong – though a cautiousness on paying overs for light cattle is apparent in discussions, producers are looking for cover on their sell price to manage downside risk.
  • There’s been more market volatility on Angus & Crossbred feeder prices in 6 months than there was for the entirety of 2025 – a clear indication of how volatility prices have been this year.

Supply

  • Roma this week had its largest weekly yarding since April 2019 at a touch over 11,500 head à a good bellwether for rising cattle supply out of QLD as I’ve been mentioning. 
  • An Article I wrote for AuctionsPlus this week explaining the set up for central eastern Australia moving into rebuild territory come Spring à a caveat, this does not mean the whole country is in rebuild, it is region specific. Link to read below:
  • Big runs of QLD weaner cattle have been seen in the yards over the past few weeks – that supply is expected to gradually ease as the selling season wraps up.
  • Looking ahead à as I raise on the podcast tomorrow, the second half of this year for slaughter isn’t going to be defined by a lack of supply, its going to be defined by economics and margin.
    • The cattle supply will be there and plenty of numbers will begin to present the deeper we get into the year, particularly those runs of northern NSW weaner cattle sold earlier in 2026.

Demand

  • Producer demand and general optimism remains quite bullish across the broader eastern seaboard – though I would say that there is a cautiousness currently about where restocker markets are trading.
    •  Producers are seeking cover on their sell price to hedge risk of downside which is holding demand rather than stoking it. 
  • Feeding Angus cattle and profitability of doing that remains an issue for feedlots – with some I’ve been speaking to still making plans around whether to step into these cattle or not for the China program à fed cattle prices and high rations aren’t justifying feeding them is the mail I’ve gotten.

Price

  • Another week or two will be needed for confirmation, but the rally in this market looks to have reached its peak last week, other than Angus feeders.
    • I’m of the view it’s a case of the economics for the supply chain catching up with the market more than it is anything else.
  • Crossbred feeder markets in 6 months in 2026 have nearly moved as much as the entire 2025 calendar year did in half the time – whilst Angus prices have moved as much in 6 months as all of 2025, source: Argus Media
    • A really clear indication of the price volatility the market is experiencing so far this year – with a lot of factors at play contributing to this, more so than last year.
  • Cows are hanging in there but only just – southern markets better supported than the north but that’s really supply driven– macro factors are beginning to emerge as a driver that’s being more widely discussed across the industry.
  • The US choice cutout has eased 5% or US19c in 2 weeks, which equates to A$1.09/kg in an AUD carcase weight equivalent basis when accounting for carcase yield and FX.
    • The decline or weak performance in the cutout (a whole of carcase price) has led this easing cycle – whilst a softening in both fed and feeder futures prices is also playing a role.
    • Why this is relevant to Australia, is the cutout value is an important bellwether to monitor for both seasonal and structural demand signals for beef from the US à as it softens, its another example of the overall US market coming off the boil in price terms.

Weather

  • Southwestern WA the focal point for rain over the next week – dry elsewhere. Models should begin to align as we move into next week on this late July system for the broader east.

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