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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Price volatility ramps up in H2 2025 as feeder prices continue to come under pressure.. 

Key Points

  • Volatility in cattle prices has really heated up in the second half of this year so far – substantially more than the first half. Volatility presents risk & risk is not a conversation we have enough of in the beef industry.
  • Hot, windy weather continues to weigh on producer demand, though there are glimpses of strong appetite for cattle in markets this week – it’s a case of just adding water to spark it.
  • Angus feeder prices, now under $5.00/kg lwt, have had their steepest price decline since August 2024 – demonstrating how strong supply of these cattle are at present.  

Supply

  • Drying weather should push some more numbers onto the market as producers position themselves to lighten off numbers coming into summer.
  • With drier weather creeping into the eastern states – in 2026 if it were to continue, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see a strong uptick in grassfed kill numbers on the back of this.
  • Slaughter had a strong rebound last week following the public holiday – VIC still lagging from its mid-year highs which suggests a slowing of the kill chain to limit losses on grassfeds.
    • Expect to see QLD / NSW have a strong finish to the year with slaughter – the processors have clear sailing now until Christmas so without breakdowns, should look to push plenty of numbers through.

Demand

  • Some feedlots are covering their positions well into Jan/Feb of next year specifically but leaving themselves open on more current months – indicative of their mindset for 2 tricky months to kickoff the new year with sourcing supply.
    • This would be the longest coverage feeders have had for some time this year at present.
  • The hot weather continues to sap some demand out of the restockers – but there’s signs of healthy underlying appetite for light cattle across parts of the country, and we’ve seen glimpses of that this week with pricing through the yards.
  • The supply of heavy feeders of all types is reducing the demand to chase stock, add into the mix the reduction in competition from southern buyers in northern markets and this is further weighing on demand.

Price

  • Since June – cattle prices have experienced increasing levels of volatility – far more than the 1st half of this year where prices were relatively stable.
  • Further downside exists in this feeder market – across both the crossbred and Angus types – in addition to this, the February 100 day fed contract has softened which will add some further pressure
    • BUT… this is nothing a widespread rain event can’t fix – late next week looks like the window.
  • Of note – Angus feeder steer prices have had their biggest price decline since mid August 2024 – to me this says a few things, #1 the strength of that price over the past 12 months and how good a run it has had, and #2 now the market realizing the supply pressure of big volumes of black feeders available.
  • Cows now back 30c off their highs set late last month – although, still operating this week in the 97th percentile on record at a touch over $3.60/kg lwt.

Weather

  • Clear skies across much of the country this week – but fortunately some solid falls for the western half of VIC and the far SE of SA, 5-50mm. TAS drought recovery continues – big falls of 100mm + there this week.
  • Storms right throughout the eastern seaboard forecast over the next week – IF these were to eventuate, markets would feel some relief – particularly producers – although as we’ve seen models have been overstating falls for some time now…

 

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