StoneX logo
Contact us

Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Add us as preferred source on Google

image-20241118165125-1

Markets easing cycle continues amidst decade high saleyard supply. 

Key Points

  • Saleyard supply for late November reached its highest level in 10 years – with NSW volumes for the week just gone, up 170% on the 5-year weekly average.
  • US Fed carcase weights hit a new record high in late November – with the fed heifer 100kg/head heavier than Australia’s Q3 National average…
  • How much of a reduction do we see in weaner supply at the 2026 sales in early January? If producers have chosen to take the money on offer now and offload?
  • With markets continuing their easing cycle this week, particularly restocker and feeder cattle, the focus becomes the weather, with a few weeks of heat before a change leading into Christmas, this feature will be one to watch.

Supply

  • Last week’s combined (Prime & Store) saleyard yardings for WE 28TH November, nationally hit their highest weekly level since January 2015, at a 103,800 hd.
    • On the 10-year weekly average, volumes were higher by 50% and against the 5-year weekly average, up by 76% or 44,800 head for WE 28th November.
    • NSW Yardings up a monstrous 170% or 29,062 head on the 5-year weekly average.
  • Slaughter volumes holding steady, currently we’re processing around 188,000 per week in actual terms – with 2 weeks remaining of full killing weeks – volumes for Q4 25’ should be very healthy – 9m head slaughtered for the year looking like the figure.
  • On supply, late November US Fed steer carcase weights hit a new record high of 448kg/head and heifers at 407kg/head – for context, our Q3 carcase weights across all cattle was 307/kg – 100kg lighter than the US fed heifer…
    • This from our US Meats & Livestock Team in KC– “ Heavier weights are significantly augmenting total beef production, but are still not enough to fully offset fed cattle head counts which have recently been pacing 5-10% smaller than year ago levels”

image-20251206123556-1 image-20251206123556-2

  • Due to cost of feeding and the money on offer recently, how much of a reduction do we see in yardings of weaner’s for the early 2026 sales? Have producers gone early to pay down debt and if so how large is the reduction in numbers? One to consider.
    • Alongside this, the weight in the weaners offered at these sales should actually come in better than excepted, supported by the turnaround in season driving weight gain performance before cattle are sold.
      • I think you’ll see bigger discounts for unweaned cattle this year, particularly for regions wishing to buy but wanting to ensure cattle perform straight away.

Demand

  • Restocker’s taking a backward step this week on the demand side, the drier weather playing a role in that.
    • The dislocation between restocker and feeder steer prices reached some of its widest daily levels for the year in the past few weeks and as those spreads normalize, it seems as if the market believed the light steers got overbought.
  • Despite the above, I’m still tipping big involvements from south western VIC & SE SA producers and buyers at the 2026 weaner sales in early January.
  • How does heavier supply in Q1 2026 influence pricing with producers holding back feeder steers? Lot feeders with the capability to do so, did buy larger numbers of backgrounders to fill requirements in Jan/Feb – how that influences demand will be an interesting one to watch early next year.
  • A rain change due from the 18th-24th of December, particularly for QLD, if it delivers should drive stronger demand for light local cattle and also at the weaner sales when markets reopen in 2026.

Price

  • Margins for 100 day cattle for the March-26 contract are quiet thin at present – this is why the feedlotters are so big on staying in the market and remaining consistent with purchases, ensuring constant buying acts as a “hedge” against having to step back in and buy larger numbers at a much higher price if the market moves against them – backgrounders do a similar thing to lower average buy price.
  • Cow market staying very firm in the yards – I don’t believe we’ve seen the repercussions of the Brazilian tariff reduction flow back to livestock prices yet but the correction will come.
  • Angus to crossbred feeder spreads are currently sitting at 12c/kg lwt – remember basis in this example is Angus Price minus Argus Crossbred feeder steer – with only a few weeks remaining, I still think we’ll see basis narrow to less than 10c to end the year.
    • image-20251206123556-3
  •  

Weather

  • A strengthening heat wave into late December will continue to sap some life out of the market over the next few weeks, before relief is due leading into Christmas.
  • image-20251206123556-4
  • The rain event leading into Christmas is the major feature to watch, as is a system for QLD in Late January / February – the timing of this rain, particularly the early 2026 falls will be crucial to setting the north up for another year.
  • Meats & Livestock

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Meats & Livestock

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 13

August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.