Brazil's cotton growers are preparing to expand planted area for the 2027 season, encouraged by a recovery in international cotton prices that has made the fiber more competitive against rival crops. A larger Brazilian cotton area is unlikely to deliver a larger crop, because El Niño threatens yields and narrows the short window in which cotton is planted after the soybean harvest. Dryness across the Center-West, the country's main cotton region, is the central risk to production. For commercial buyers and merchants, Brazil's cotton supply looks set to contract for a second consecutive year even as its acreage grows.
Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, tracks grain, oilseed and soft commodity markets. His coverage includes how Brazilian agricultural production and policy shape domestic and global markets, the interplay between the soybean harvest, El Niño and Brazil's cotton crop.
Key Themes
Brazil's cotton planted area is projected to rise 4.4% for the 2027 season.
El Niño raises the risk of dryness across the Center-West, Brazil's main cotton region, threatening 2027 yields.
Brazil is projected to remain the leading global cotton exporter in 2027 despite production falling for a second year.
Cotton Planting Window Narrows as Soybean Harvest Runs Late
Brazil's cotton planting window depends directly on the timing of the soybean harvest, because the crop goes into the ground immediately after soybeans are cleared from the field. "Most of Brazil's cotton is planted right after the harvest of the soybean crop", Bulascoschi said, noting that a delay in the soybean cycle carries over into cotton. In an El Niño year, that sequence becomes a liability, because the same dryness that slows soybean development can push the cotton window later and into hotter, drier conditions. Consequently, growers risk seeding into a shorter window that caps yield potential before the crop is fully established.
Brazil Cotton Output Falls Even as Planted Area Grows
Brazil's cotton production is projected to fall to about 3.83 million metric tons in 2027, roughly 1.5% below the current crop, even though planted area is expanding by 4.4%. The gap traces back to yields, with a base case near 1.85 metric tons per hectare that dryness in an El Niño year could erode further, offsetting the extra acreage. Even with a smaller crop, Brazil is set to keep its position atop the global cotton trade, with projected shipments around 3.05 million metric tons. According to Bulascoschi, "that would still be the second largest volume for exports on record, which speaks to the resilience of Brazil's export sector".
Frequently Asked Questions
Which part of Brazil is most exposed to El Niño dryness for cotton?
The Center-West is Brazil's main cotton growing region, and it is where El Niño raises the risk of dryness during crop development. Because rainfall there drives both soybean timing and cotton yields, the region carries the greatest exposure in an El Niño year.
How much cotton is Brazil expected to export in 2027?
Brazil's cotton exports are projected at around 3.05 million metric tons in 2027, down about 7.6% from the 3.3 million metric tons expected for 2026. Even at that lower level, Bulascoschi notes it would rank as the second largest export volume on record.
Why is Brazil expanding cotton area if production is set to fall?
A recovery in international cotton prices has made cotton more competitive against other crops, encouraging Brazilian growers to plant more. The larger area does not lift output because El Niño threatens yields, leaving production lower even with expanded acreage.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Raphael Bulascoschi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
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