CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Can Dairy Markets Absorb Another Year of Fast Supply Growth
By: Nate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insight
Global dairy markets are navigating a period of unusual imbalance as milk production accelerates rapidly while downstream prices weaken. The pace of expansion has outstripped normal growth patterns, creating a challenging backdrop for producers entering 2026. Markets are now assessing whether supply momentum will continue long enough to suppress prices beyond the first half of the year. The stakes are rising as margins tighten and global buyers respond cautiously to shifting demand signals.
Nate Donnay, StoneX Director of Dairy Market Insight, provides detailed perspective on how rapidly expanding milk production and evolving cost pressures shape risk for producers and traders in early 2026.
Key Themes from the Discussion
- Milk production growth reached roughly triple its historical pace in late 2025, expanding rapidly across major exporters.
- Falling farmgate prices and margin compression create early 2026 downside risk for dairy commodities.
- Any price recovery depends on when and how sharply milk production slows during the year.
Watch the Full Conversation
How Accelerating Supply Became the Dominant Force
Milk production rose at an estimated 5.5% pace in September and October, a rate that Donnay notes is “running about three times the normal pace”. This surge reflects strong farm profitability in preceding years and reduced disruption from earlier disease challenges, particularly in Europe and the United States. The acceleration has created broad price weakness because output increases outpaced the capacity of processors and buyers to absorb new supply. Donnay emphasizes that supply, more than demand, “can blame most of the price weakness” as production growth overwhelmed market balance.
Margin Strain and the Timing of a Possible Rebalance
As farmgate milk prices fall and margins compress, producers may begin dialing back output, creating the first meaningful bullish risk for prices later in the year. Donnay explains that the “risk is that prices are weak in the first half of the year and then we get a rally in the second half” as production finally slows. The timing of that slowdown will determine how quickly markets can transition out of oversupply. Until then, traders must navigate a landscape where supply momentum exerts more influence on price behavior than marginal shifts in demand.
Get the Dairy Insights You Need with StoneX Plus
Stay ahead in volatile dairy markets. Try StoneX Plus free for 14 days and gain access to expert analysis, live pricing, and data-driven insights to inform your strategy. From futures quotes to interactive tools, StoneX Plus is your edge in navigating today’s dairy market dynamics.
Sign up for a StoneX Plus trial today See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Nate Donnay, StoneX Director of Dairy Market Insight
- Dairy
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Dairy
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.