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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Global Grain Update

By: Craig Turner, Senior Risk Management Consultant

Global Grain Update: Russia, Argentina, Brazil Boost 2025/26 Forecasts.

Russia’s IKAR bumped their 2025 wheat production estimate to 87 MMT from 86 MMT, with exports nudged up to 44 MMT from 43 MMT. Total grain output got a lift to 135.0 MMT from 132.8 MMT.

SovEcon echoed the optimism, raising their wheat forecast to 87.2 MMT from 86.1 MMT and total grain to 134.9 MMT from 130.5 MMT. Tightening global supplies could feel some relief, but markets will watch export flows closely.

In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange pegged 2025/26 corn production at a record 61 MMT, with soybeans at 47 MMT, reflecting a 7% YoY planting drop—steeper than the Buenos Aires Exchange’s 4.3% decline estimate. Rosario also upped its 2024/25 corn estimate to 50.0 MMT from 48.5 MMT, still shy of the 2023/24 record of 52.5 MMT. Acreage shifts and weather will be key for South American supply dynamics.

Brazil’s CONAB raised its soybean crop estimate to 171.5 MMT from 169.7 MMT (last year: 151.3 MMT) and total corn to 139.7 MMT from 137.0 MMT (last year: 115.5 MMT). The safrinha corn crop was revised to 112.0 MMT from 109.6 MMT, well above last year’s 90.1 MMT. These updates wrap CONAB’s final look at last year’s crops. Strong South American output could pressure prices unless demand surprises.

Market Takeaway: Upward revisions across major producers signal robust supply potential for 2025/26, but acreage shifts, weather risks, and export pace will drive price action. Stay nimble.  For now, the best plan of action is to sell the 2026 new crop during rallies.

 

 
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @CornWheatSoy
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