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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Today is LTD for March grain options. 

 

The White House announced that a trade agreement with Indonesia was signed Thursday and released a fact sheet outlining the finalized deal. The administration said the agreement will provide expanded market access for U.S. goods and services and unlock new opportunities across manufacturing, agriculture, and digital sectors. For agriculture, the focus will be on what specific tariff reductions, quota access, and sanitary/phytosanitary provisions are included, as Indonesia represents a growing Southeast Asian market for U.S. grains, oilseeds, protein, and value-added ag products.

 

Fed commentary reflected a more cautious stance on rate cuts. Fed Governor Miran said he now sees a less accommodative policy path and would reverse his December tilt toward easier policy if still serving at the March meeting, citing firmer labor data and renewed goods inflation. Based on current conditions, he would pencil in 100 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, down from the 150 bps he projected in December. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Fed is close to achieving both its inflation and employment mandates and that rates are near neutral. He described the labor market as softer but still “decent to pretty good,” dismissed crypto as largely useless, and expressed optimism about AI’s growing productivity benefits across businesses.

President Trump said steel tariffs have been a “game-changer,” arguing they’ve strengthened U.S. industry, generated significant revenue, and enhanced national security, while accusing China of flooding markets with subsidized goods and saying Canada had taken advantage of past trade arrangements. For agriculture, the broader implication is less about tariff revenue and more about retaliation risk. Historically, industrial tariffs have prompted countermeasures targeting U.S. farm exports such as soybeans, pork, dairy, and specialty crops. As a result, grain and livestock markets will be watching closely for signs of escalation with China or renewed friction with Canada, both critical trade partners, since even heightened rhetoric can influence futures sentiment before any formal policy changes occur.

 

U.S. data painted a mixed but generally resilient economic picture. The February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside at 16.3 versus 8.5 expected, with business conditions jumping sharply, though underlying details were softer as employment turned negative and capex intentions declined while new orders eased. Price pressures moderated, with prices paid falling notably. The December trade deficit widened significantly to $70.3 billion as exports fell and imports rose, signaling a drag from net trade. Inventory data were steady, with both retail ex-autos and wholesale inventories rising 0.2%. Housing remains weak, as pending home sales fell 0.8% in January against expectations for a rebound. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to show strength, with initial jobless claims dropping to 206k, well below expectations, though continuing claims ticked slightly higher. Overall, manufacturing sentiment improved, inflation pressures cooled somewhat, trade deteriorated, housing struggled, and labor remains firm.

 

image-20260220044817-1

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 600 k 450 c 7 3/8 

S 300 j 425 p 2 7/8 to 2 5/8 

B 250 k 420 p 5

 

Beans

B 200 k 1160 c 31

 

Bean oil

B 150 u 60/65 cs 1.585

B 300 k 64 c 1.900 to 1.935 vs 5960

B 200 n 6450 c 2.820 vs 5979

S 150 w4 58 p .350

 

Wheat 

S 100 j 550 c 28 1/8 

 

Kc wheat

B 300 w1 550 p 4 to 5

 

Open interest changes

Corn

U 520 c buy was closing....u 420 p sale, k 455 c buy, z 440p/480c strangle buy, n 460 c buy and sd n 460 c sales were new

 

Beans

X 1200/1300 cs buy vs s of x1000 p and k 1200 c buys were new

 

Bean oil

N 65/75 cs buy, n 75 c sale, k 51 p buy and j 70 c buys were new.....n 60 c sale was closing....k 56/52 and 57/53 ps buys were rolling longs

 

Wheat 

J 585 c buy, j 540 p buy, j 590/640 cs buy and k 550/500 ps buys were new

 

Kc wheat

J 565/545 ps buy was rolling a long 

 

Cvol 

Ags 19.04% up .20%

Corn 15.11% down .14%

Beans 17.64% down .01%

Soymeal 21.58% down .61%

Bean oil 37.07% up 2.14% (6 month high)

Wheat 29.12% up 3.08% (6 month high)

Feeder cattle 17.03% up .37%

Live cattle 16.49% up .02%

Lean hogs 18.64% down .41% (3 month low)

Class 3 milk 24.69% up .60%

 

Corn

image-20260220044817-2

Beans

image-20260220044817-3

Soymeal

image-20260220044817-4

Bean oil 

image-20260220044817-5

Wheat

image-20260220044817-6

Kc wheat

image-20260220044817-7

Miax wheat

image-20260220044817-8

Oats

image-20260220044817-9

Rough rice

image-20260220044817-10

Crush

image-20260220044817-11

Feeder cattle

image-20260220044817-12

Live cattle

image-20260220044817-13

Lean hogs

image-20260220044817-14

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