By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
In February 2026, global fertilizer markets are being reshaped by geopolitics rather than traditional demand cycles. China’s expected absence from urea and phosphate exports and Iran’s return to nitrogen production are redrawing trade routes and altering price risk. As of mid-February, supply visibility remains fragile despite steady planting demand. The balance of power in nitrogen markets is shifting toward policy decisions in Beijing and geopolitical stability in Tehran.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, has spent years tracking global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows across multiple supply cycles. His direct monitoring of export volumes, policy shifts and production outages gives him a distinct vantage point on how geopolitical decisions translate into immediate price consequences for global fertilizer markets.
China fertilizer export restrictions are creating a measurable gap in global urea and phosphate availability. Josh Linville states that "the expectation… is that they will not be exporting any phosphate or urea until August of 2026", removing millions of tons from normal trade flows. Consequently, global buyers must source supply from a narrower pool of exporters, increasing regional price sensitivity and freight volatility. Despite the low probability of reversal, Linville cautions that if China reassesses stockpiles and demand, it could "very easily repeal that export ban", a shift that would likely trigger rapid global price declines.
Iran nitrogen production returning to full rates is tempering some of the bullish momentum in urea markets. Linville underscores Iran’s significance by noting, "they are the third largest urea exporter in the world", confirming its structural role in global nitrogen trade. As a result, renewed output could ease tightness in key importing regions, particularly if volumes reach consistent export channels. However, Linville also stresses the fragility of this supply, warning that production can "go back off just as quick as they started up", meaning geopolitical tension continues to embed volatility into nitrogen pricing.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
India’s next urea tender is becoming the defining event for global fertilizer markets as prices weaken and buyers regain leverage. The outcome could determine whether the recent correction deepens further or stabilises heading into the second half of 2026.
Fertilizer markets are holding together despite prolonged geopolitical disruption, but the stability is increasingly being driven by weaker farmer demand rather than healthier supply conditions. Rising input costs and financial stress are forcing growers to scale back nutrient application rates, potentially reshaping global fertilizer trade flows into 2027.
Fertilizer Swaps & Futures Daily Settlements
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
