Wholesale boxed beef prices moved higher in Thursday morning trade, with Choice up $1.30 to $365.10 and Select edging 5 cents higher to $360.68, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $4.42. On the production side, USDA estimated Wednesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter at 113,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 315,000 head — 24,000 head above last week but still 12,837 head below the same week a year ago — reflecting improved short-term throughput while overall supplies remain tighter year-over-year.
The USDA Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow after the close, and it will be a key near-term driver for the live and feeder cattle markets. Trade focus will center on three numbers: on-feed inventory as of the first of the month, January placements, and marketings. Given the tighter year-over-year cattle supply backdrop and recent strength in boxed beef, the report will help determine whether feedlot inventories are continuing to contract or stabilizing, and whether placement levels signal tighter fed cattle availability into late spring and early summer. With futures trading at historically elevated levels, any surprise in placements or marketings could generate outsized volatility heading into next week.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a letter to Trump administration officials urging them to address foreign control over major U.S. food supply companies, calling it a strategic vulnerability and national security concern. He specifically cited JBS and National Beef, which are Brazilian-owned, along with Smithfield Foods and Syngenta Group, which are owned by Chinese parent companies. The letter, sent to the Agriculture Secretary, Treasury Secretary, and Attorney General, highlights growing political scrutiny over foreign ownership in key segments of the U.S. agricultural and protein supply chain.
China reported a $734.9 billion current account surplus in 2025, according to preliminary data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. However, this was offset by a $760.2 billion deficit in the capital and financial accounts (including net errors and omissions) for the year. In practical terms, that means while China generated a massive trade and income surplus, it simultaneously experienced significant net capital outflows — suggesting money left the country through portfolio flows, direct investment shifts, or other financial channels. The figures highlight continued structural trade strength but also persistent capital flow pressures within China’s financial system.
U.S. economic data showed a mixed but generally resilient picture. Initial jobless claims fell to 206K, well below both the prior week’s 229K and expectations of 225K, signaling continued labor market strength. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 from 12.6, sharply beating forecasts of 8.5 and marking the strongest reading since September, suggesting improving business activity in the manufacturing sector. However, the U.S. trade deficit widened significantly to $70.3 billion in December from $53 billion in November, reflecting a deterioration in the trade balance despite solid domestic economic momentum.
The latest U.S. trade data show the goods deficit widening more than expected in December, coming in at $98.5 billion versus estimates near $86 billion, contributing to a 2025 goods trade gap that has reached a new record. While the overall 2025 trade deficit sits at $901.5 billion — slightly narrower than 2024’s $903.5 billion — the bilateral goods deficit with China has narrowed significantly to $202.1 billion from $295.5 billion last year. Notably, U.S. goods exports to Canada fell to their lowest level since January 2022, highlighting softness in North American trade flows. The combination of a record goods deficit, weaker exports to Canada, and shifting China balances reinforces that trade dynamics remain fluid and politically sensitive, especially amid ongoing tariff discussions and USMCA uncertainty
Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $190.7 billion, up roughly 5–6% from a year ago, with adjusted earnings slightly above expectations. The company guided to fiscal 2027 sales growth of about 3.5% to 4.5% and offered earnings guidance that was somewhat cautious versus market forecasts, signaling a continued focus on value as consumers remain price sensitive. From an agriculture and livestock perspective, grocery sales continue to drive store traffic, supporting steady demand for meat, dairy, and staple food products. However, the tempered outlook suggests retailers expect ongoing competitive pricing pressure, which could keep margins tight throughout beef, poultry, and broader food supply chains.
Hogs
Bought 300 April 93/89 puts spread paid 1.3750
Bought 200 June 108 calls paid 3.9750
Bought 350 April 92 puts paid 1.85 covered 93.375
Sold 200 April 94 calls @ 2.20 down to 2.10
Sold 600 April 84/94 strangle @ 2.1750 down to 2.125 covered 92.450
Bought 350 Dec 76/88 strangle paid 6.40 up to 6.50
Sold 250 April 90 calls @ 4.05 down to 4.00
Sold 200 April 86/94 Strangle @ 2.40 down to 2.375 covered 92.775
Bought 300 March 100 calls paid .15
Sold 250 Oct 82 puts @ 2.70
Bought 150 March 90 puts paid .90
Sold 150 Apri 84/94 strangle @ 2.175
Bought 225 Oct 96 calls paid 3.2750
Live Cattle
Bought 300 June 230 puts paid 4.4750 up to 4.50
Sold 600 March 242/245 call spread @ 1.50 down to 1.40
Sold 200 Aug 240 calls @ 7.10 down to 7.00
Sold 300 Aug 262 calls @ 1.2250
Bought 200 April 231/216 put spread paid 1.075 covered 243.250
Bought 400 April 244/237/230 put fly paid 1.150
Sold 300 March 238 puts @ 1.50
Sold 250 Aug 164 puts @ .30
Bought 100 Aug 240/252 call spread v. 210 calls paid 2.10
Sold 100 May 241 calls @ 4.70
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 May 363 calls @ 12.15
Bought 100 May 364 puts paid 11.125
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