Daily Coffee Report 8/6/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Coffee Supply Recovery Tests Demand After Inflation Shock
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Global coffee markets are entering a transitional phase after several years defined by tight supply and extreme price volatility. As of early 2026, improving production prospects in Brazil are easing structural deficits that have constrained the market since 2021. At the same time, demand has yet to fully recover from the inflation shock that weighed on consumption across major importing regions in 2025. This shift marks a critical reset point for pricing dynamics, inventory rebuilding, and risk management across the coffee supply chain.
Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Risk Management Consultant, has worked closely with producers and commercial participants navigating prolonged periods of coffee market stress. His on-the-ground exposure to Brazilian supply conditions and consumption trends gives him a unique perspective on how inflation and production cycles intersect to shape global coffee balances.
Key Themes from the Discussion
- Global coffee supply is expected to move into its first meaningful surplus since 2021 as Brazilian production rebounds.
- Inflation-driven demand destruction reduced global coffee consumption by an estimated 3 percent in 2025.
- Easing inflation in the second half of 2025 is creating conditions for a gradual demand recovery in 2026.
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Download the StoneX Quarterly Commodities OutlookCoffee Supply Growth Shifts Market Balance
Coffee supply growth is reshaping market expectations after several years of persistent deficits. Fernando Maximiliano notes that Brazil’s next crop could mark a turning point, stating that “in 2026, we expect that we will see the first surplus, good surplus in five years”. This projected surplus stems from stronger Brazilian output following improved crop development and more stable conditions across key producing regions. Consequently, the coffee market is moving away from scarcity-driven pricing toward a more balanced supply environment.
Coffee Demand Recovery Depends on Inflation Relief
Coffee demand remains constrained by the lingering effects of inflation across major consumer markets. Maximiliano highlights that inflation pressures led to measurable consumption losses, explaining that “we estimate the global consumption to decrease… 3% throughout 2025”. While inflation has eased since mid-2025, demand recovery is expected to be gradual rather than immediate. As a result, the pace at which consumption rebounds will be critical in determining how quickly excess supply can be absorbed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did coffee consumption fall in 2025?
According to Fernando Maximiliano, high inflation across Brazil, the United States, Europe, and Japan reduced retail sales and overall coffee consumption during 2025.
Will higher production immediately rebuild coffee stocks?
Maximiliano explains that while supply is improving, rebuilding stocks will depend on how quickly demand recovers after inflation-driven losses.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Risk Management Consultant
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6
August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.
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Daily Coffee Report 8/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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