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CONAB Revises Down Forecast for Brazil’s 2022-2023 Coffee Crop to 53.4 Million Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their latest survey, CONAB has pegged Brazil’s 2022-2023 coffee crop at 53.4 million bags, down 4.1% from their previous estimate of 55.7 million bags.

The volume represents an increase of about 5.7 million bags compared to the previous cycle. Compared to the 2020 harvest, the last year of positive bienniality, the expected production for this year is 15.3%, or 9.65 million bags lower.

"The recovery is limited, due to the drought and frosts that occurred last year, mainly in Minas Gerais, Paraná and São Paulo, which weakened the plants, influencing the productive performance of coffee the crops,” said the President of the Company, Guilherme Ribeiro.

Arabica coffee is the one that should be most influenced by the adverse climate, because its concentration occurs in these regions most impacted by low temperatures and water scarcity. The expectation is still a recovery in production in relation to the last harvest, and may reach 35.7 million bags. However, a greater productive potential was expected, because it is a cycle of positive bienniality. When compared to the 2020 harvest, that is a decrease of 23.6% of the estimated total volume.

The new forecast of 35.7 million bags of Arabica is 7.8% lower than the initial estimate of 38.7 million bags.

For average productivity, the last year of positive bienniality reached about 32.21 bags per hectare for Arabica coffee. In the current harvest, the estimate is an average yield of 24.6 bags per hectare. Minas Gerais remains the largest coffee producer in Brazil with 24.7 million bags produced, of these 24.4 are Arabica.

Conilon coffee production is expected to reach a new record, with a harvest of 17.7 million bags – an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous harvest, driven by the increase in productivity that has been recurring each year. In Espírito Santo, the main state producing conilon, production should exceed 12 million bags.

The new forecast of 17.7 million bags of Conilon is 4% higher than the initial estimate of 17 million bags.

"There was no record of climatic extremes in the state of Espírito Santo. On the contrary, the volume of rainfall and temperatures were favorable for the crop. The same scenario was verified in Bahia. In Rondônia, in addition to the good weather conditions, producers continue to invest in technological improvements. The states of Mato Grosso and Amazonas have great potential to increase productivity and consequently production", points out the Director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies of Conab, Sergio De Zen.

According to the survey, the area for coffee is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, an increase of 1.9% compared to 2021. The increase is expected both for the space destined for the plants in formation and for those in production. For the area under formation, Conab estimates about 401,200 hectares, while the crops in production are around 1.84 million hectares, an increase of 2.5% and 1.8% respectively.

In the first four months of this year, Brazil has already exported 14.1 million bags of coffee. The volume is 10.8% lower than the amount exported in the same period last year, a result influenced by the drop in coffee production in 2021 and a reduction in domestic inventories in the first months of 2022.

 

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