As of early 2026, the global cotton market remains defined by persistent oversupply rather than macroeconomic relief. Lower interest rates and improved trade relations have failed to lift prices as successive upward revisions to production continue to dominate market psychology. The imbalance between supply and demand has forced global cotton markets to reprice toward structural, rather than cyclical, fundamentals.
Raphael Bulascoschi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, specialises in tracking cotton production trends and export competitiveness across South America. His analysis of Brazil’s acreage expansion and pricing dynamics offers direct insight into how supply-side shifts are reshaping global cotton trade flows.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Global cotton prices stayed weak in 2025 despite rate cuts and improved trade relations.
Brazil harvested roughly 4.15 million tonnes of cotton, driven by record acreage and favourable weather.
Brazil exported close to 3 million tonnes, consolidating its position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Cotton oversupply has remained the dominant force shaping global price action through 2025 and into 2026. Bulascoschi notes that "this whole oversupply in the cotton market overshadowed what should have been some supportive macro factors", including U.S. rate cuts and improving U.S.–China relations. As a result, cotton prices spent much of 2025 absorbing repeated production upgrades rather than responding to macro tailwinds. This dynamic has entrenched a bearish pricing environment that continues to weigh on producer margins.
Brazil’s cotton expansion has materially altered global trade flows by introducing large volumes of competitively priced supply. Bulascoschi highlights that "such a large crop pushed Brazilian current prices to their lowest levels since 2020", dramatically improving export competitiveness. Consequently, Brazil shipped around 3 million tonnes of cotton in 2025, undercutting higher-cost exporters and consolidating its leadership position. This export surge has reinforced global oversupply and delayed any meaningful market rebalancing.
Download the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Raphael Bulascoschi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
Cotton
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
