By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
WTI crude oil has extended its weekly decline past 7% as market sentiment pivots toward a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a shift that has repriced supply risk faster than underlying flows can actually move. The alignment between the United States and Europe on Hormuz access has confirmed a bearish breakout below WTI's multi-month consolidation range that has held since March 2026. Price action has pulled back sharply to levels last seen during the April 2026 lows, a zone that previously served as resistance during the 2025 Middle East conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel. With the $74 support level now directly in focus, the distance between geopolitical optimism and physical supply reality has become the defining tension in crude oil markets.
Razan Hilal, CMT, is a Market Analyst at FOREX.com who covers technical and intermarket analysis across commodities, forex, stocks, and indices, drawing on a background as a former foreign exchange dealer and author of more than 100 market analysis reports. Crude oil price structure and supply-side geopolitics fall directly within the commodity markets she tracks as part of her regular coverage of energy, metals, and global indices.
The confirmed bearish break below WTI's multi-month consolidation range reflects markets pricing in a supply relief that has not yet physically materialized. Hilal is direct on this point: "The normalization of the supply flows is expected to be gradual rather than immediate." Price action has realigned with April 2026 lows, a level that previously acted as resistance during last year's Middle East conflict, placing the $76 to $80 zone as immediate resistance and $74 as the next critical test. The daily chart is now showing oversold readings last seen in December 2025, which introduces the possibility of a short-term technical bounce at that level. An OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Wednesday adds a further layer of complexity, one that Hilal suggests may present a reality check for markets reacting to the latest geopolitical headlines rather than confirmed supply data.
"Despite improving market sentiment, caution remains warranted as markets continue to react to geopolitical headlines while keeping in mind potential summer liquidity constraints," Hilal notes, framing a market where the dominant trend has not yet been challenged. The bearish framework that has been in place since the March 2026 highs remains intact; the current selloff has confirmed rather than reversed it. For a genuine recovery, WTI would need to sustain a hold above $78 and reclaim the $82 level before a move toward $86 and the $90 multi-month consolidation zone could be considered. Conversely, a sustained hold below the $74 mark would, in her view, "likely extend losses down towards the $70 psychological threshold," aligning with the previous high from July 2025, with $67 as a further reference point that has served as multi-year support and resistance across the crude oil chart. With post-conflict supply conditions expected to take time to normalize, the technical structure continues to favor the bears until price action demonstrates otherwise.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, CMT, Market Analyst, FOREX.com
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
The oil market keeps watching the Strait of Hormuz, but the tighter pressure on fuel is building in refining. With a large share of global capacity offline and unplanned outages carrying no repair timeline, diesel supply faces three fresh risks before winter.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
