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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-18-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Prices bounced yesterday following reports that Freeport is getting some supply out of the pipeline, suggesting progress on a restart.  Weather forecasts also showed colder than normal conditions holding across the west while expanding into the central US during the last week of Jan.  The Feb contract settled 16.7 cents higher at $3.586. 

 

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Following last week’s first ever January injection, Platts predicts this week’s storage report will show a well below normal withdrawal of 75 BCF.  Predictions are once again expansive, ranging from a draw of 54 BCF to as much as 113 BCF.  The number will compare to last year’s pull of 203 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 156 BCF.  

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Much above normal temps will continue to dominate the East over the next week before turning colder in the 6-10 day period.  The East Coast, including the NE, will however maintain their above normal readings thru the end of the month. With forecasts trending colder across the much of the US, Maxar is forecasting 434.6 HDDs over the next 2 weeks which is lower than normal. 

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Prices are trading back down today on widespread expectations Freeport LNG will not restart until at least Feb if not later.  
Additionally, the continuation of warmer than normal temps across the NE thru the end of Jan will keep gas fired demand limited in that region. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The spot February 22 natural gas contract remains in a bearish downtrend after failing to clear 10 day moving average resistance on Tuesday.

The February contract reached a 3.789 high on Tuesday but was unable again to clear 10 day moving average resistance.

With resistance holding, prices pulled back into the close to settle the day at 3.586, up .203.

Overnight selling has erased all of yesterday’s gains with the February contract setting a new 19-month low at 3.343.

3.320 is key support as it represents the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2020-August 2022 uptrend.

If 3.320 support fails to hold, the final 88% retracement at 2.465 will become the next downside objective.

The 10 day average at 3.695 today remains primary resistance.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 31.87

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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