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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-23-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Gas prices closed lower 3 out of 4 sessions last week, ending the week down 7%.  Feb futures settled Friday’s trade down 10.1 cents at 3.174.  Production held steady while weather conditions were mostly mild, keeping demand muted.  Storage levels also reverted back into a surplus following 2 weeks of bearish data which included the first ever January injection. 

 

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LNG exports remain lower than last year with the long awaited return of Freepost still unknown.  Feedgas demand is averaging 12.3 BCF/day month to date, down 0.2 BCF/day from last year.  

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Stronger demand is expected this week as much colder air filters in from Canada.  Below normal readings are anticipated to impact parts of the western, central and northern US this week before spreading eastward as we head into Feb.  

Demand levels are starting to creep higher but still remain lower than normal.  The next 7 days should see total demand average 126.2 BCF/day.

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Prices are sharply higher this morning in response to weather outlooks turning colder over the weekend. The spot month is up about 25 cents while the March contract is trading only 6 cents higher, indicating contained bullish momentum. 
This morning’s 6-10 day forecast from Maxar trends colder from the West to the Midwest and warmer in the East compared to Friday.  Their 11-15 day outlook trends colder from the Midwest to the East with temps forecast to be below to much below normal.
A total of 9.6 HDDs have been added to the forecast since Friday with the next 15 days now expected to yield 472.9 HDDs, which is on the colder side of normal. 
Technical Analysis
 
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Natural gas prices closed down for a 5th consecutive week on Friday with the spot February 23 contract losing .245 over the 5 days of trade to settle at 3.174.

Over the past 5 weeks, the spot contract has lost 3.426 or 52% in the weakest early year performance for natural gas on record.

Prices have gapped higher to begin the new week of trade as the February contract tests 10 day moving average resistance at 3.525.  There has not been a single daily close above the 10 day moving average since mid-December.

If 10 day moving average resistance is broken, 3.750-3.760 and 3.900-3.910 will become the next resistance areas.

The gap created on today’s open between 3.140-3.365 is near term support followed by last week’s 3.091 low.  Longer term support is the 88% retracement of the June 2020-August 2022 uptrend at 2.465.

Seasonally, a post-winter low tends to form during the months of February or March.  

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 36.90

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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