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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-28-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251028085735-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Early weakness yesterday stemming from position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s expiration and comfortable storage levels gave way to renewed buying interest later in the day.  Forecasts showing colder conditions across much of the eastern US through the remainder of the month ultimately supported gas prices on Monday.  Following a choppy session, the November contract settled 13.8 cents higher at $3.442.

The 6-10 day forecast is warmer vs yesterday across the East however periods of cooler conditions still favor the region early in the period.  Above to much above normal temps are expected across the West, spreading into the Plains and Midwest.  The 11-15 day outlook has trended warmer, now featuring widespread above normal temps.  This includes much above normal readings in the Interior West through the Central US. 

image 121638

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Strong output levels are helping soften the increase in demand.  Output this month is averaging 106.6 BCF/day this month.  

Production is projected to grow this winter to an average near 107.9 BCF/day, about 4 BCF/day higher than last winter. Much of the increase will stem from a rebound in Appalachia and Haynesville.

image 121639

Source: Bloomberg

Temps have turned cooler this week, driving an increase in heating demand.  Res/comm usage rose 0.9 BCF/day yesterday to 20.4 BCF/day and climbed another 1.5 BCF/day this morning to reach 21.9 BCF/day. Based on current forecasts, heating demand is projected to average 22.4 BCF/day over the next week before easing to about 20 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. 

LNG exports were revised lower for Monday, to 15.3 BCF/day, due to a short lived outage at Cameron LNG.  Feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 16.8 BCF/day.  Flows at Plaquemines are hitting new records after introducing gas to Block 17 over the weekend.   

image 121640Source: NOAA

Prices are trading lower this morning given a warmer outlook for early November.  The spot month is currently down .085 cents. 

image-20251028085837-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Tomorrow’s expiring November 25 natural gas contract gapped higher by over .100 to begin Monday’s session, sold off to 10 day moving average support at 3.200, and then rallied back higher into the close.

By day’s end, the November contract had gained .138 (4.2%) closing the day at 3.442.

200 day moving average resistance held at Monday’s high which has been followed by renewed selling today erasing most of yesterday’s gains.

10 day moving average support is at 3.270 today followed by 3.200 weekly low support.   

Longer term support is the 40 day moving average at 3.145 which coincides with the top of the open gap created on last week’s open at 3.130.  In order to close the gap, the spot contract will need to trade down to 3.025.   

200 day moving average resistance is at 3.450 today followed by double top resistance at 3.572-3.585.

With the November contract expiring on Wednesday and the December 25 contract currently trading at 3.900, there is going to be a massive downside gap on the daily continuation chart which could become a very bearish technical factor in upcoming trade.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 54.17

image 121642

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121644

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121643

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121477

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 121641

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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