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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-20-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Following an early week rally on forecasts turning colder for late November, nat gas prices turned much lower late last week following bearish storage data and record production levels. Friday’s trade continued to account for 2 weeks of EIA data that proved to be a bearish miss versus expectations. Additionally, production maintained levels near 104 BCF/day.  Dec futures settled Friday’s trade down .102 cents at $2.96.  For the week, prices fell 2.4%.

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Demand levels have been on the rise since Friday as colder air has descended through the Great Lakes. The cold will expand into the East later this week, pushing temps down into the 20’s and 30’s.

Production levels hit a high of 105 BCF on Saturday and are estimated at 105.4 BCF for today.  Platts is forecasting output will average 105.3 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks. Month to date, output is averaging 104.5 BCF/day, up 3.9 BCF/day from November 2022.

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The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the NWS has just about the entire country averaging below normal.  Their 3-4 week outlook has turned bearish as above normal readings are now projected for the entire northern US, including all of the NE down through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Central US. 

Maxar is projecting the next 15 days will see a total of 343.4 HDDs, which is higher than normal, higher than last year but lower than Friday’s outlook by 9.9 HDDs.  The most notable cold during the 6-10 day period will be felt from the Interior West to the Plains, Midwest and NE. 

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With weather models showing less cooling versus Friday and production topping recent highs, prices are once again trading lower this morning.  
Technical Analysis
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The December 23 natural gas contract began last week’s trade with a rally higher trending up to a 3.275 high on Wednesday.

Heavy selling on Thursday and Friday dropped the December contract back under 2.980-3.000 support closing Friday at 2.960.  For the week, the contract was down .073 (2.4%).

Last week’s rally higher failed at a key resistance area keeping the bearish descending right triangle pattern on the December 23 chart intact.  This pattern points toward 2.680-2.700 as its downside measuring objective.

The lower-2.700 area is also a trend line support on the daily continuation chart beginning at the mid-April 1.944 low.  This will be an important support area to watch.  

If lower-2.700 support is reached and holds, the primary trend will remains sideways to higher.

If support fails to hold, 2.590 (61.8% retracement) will become the next area of support.

The 10 day moving average bearishly crossed under the 40 day average in last week’s trade.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 40.78

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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