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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-16-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 90074
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
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Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Prices declined yesterday as oversupply concerns were heightened following storage data that revealed a much smaller than expected withdrawal.  Declining heating demand expectations and near record output added to the downside.  Mar futures settled 2.8 cents lower at $1.581.  Prices have now fallen 24% over the last 8 sessions.  

image 90078
Source: Bloomberg, CME

For the week ended Feb 9, stocks fell by just 49 BCF leaving gas in storage at 2.535 TCF.  The pull trailed expectations by 19 BCF and was well below the 5 yr avg of 149 BCF and the year ago draw of 117 BCF.  Stocks are now 348 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 255 BCF above last year. 

Storage models suggest further bearish storage data over the coming few weeks.   The week in progress is expected to see a draw in the 60-67 BCF range vs the 5 yr avg  draw of 168 BCF.  The week ending Feb 23 is expected to see a pull of 77 BCF vs the 5 yr avg draw of 143 BCF.  If correct, the surplus will grow by another 170 BCF over the next 2 weeks, pushing the 5 yr avg surplus to 500+ BCF. 

image 90079
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Forecasts from Maxar continue to suggest an overall warm pattern for the next 2 weeks.  Brief rounds of cold are expected across the Rockies today.  The cold will move into the Eastern US this weekend, pushing temps to below normal levels. Temps will quickly warm back up early to mid next week with a chance for another round of cold for late next week. The next 2 weeks should see a lower than normal 333.5 HDDs. 

 

​​image 90080
Source: NOAA

Prices are actually trading higher this morning with the spot month up 3 to 4 cents.  Colder temps heading into the weekend are offering support

Technical Analysis
image 90081
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot March 24 natural gas contract has closed down eight consecutive sessions trading down to a new 3 ½ year low on Thursday at 1.573 before closing the day at 1.581, down .028.

There is still no sign of a bottom being in place with Thursday’s 1.573 low being near term support followed by monthly low support at 1.519 from March 2020.

60-minute chart trend line support beginning at the early-January high is currently near 1.450.

Daily RSI at 25.78 is in the oversold area but the RSI index can remain oversold for some time before a lasting low forms.  Volume has trended lower the past two sessions which could indicate an exhaustion low is forming.

Current weakness is expected to be the final price break before a post-winter seasonal low is set.  

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 25.78

Seasonal Prices
image 90023
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90022
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90021
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89880
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89879
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 90082
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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