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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-26-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 90545
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
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Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices relinquished additional gains on Friday as mild weather driven demand overshadowed lower production levels and indications of further production cuts.  Mar futures ended Friday’s session with a loss of 12.9 cents to settle at $1.603, nearly in line with the previous week’s settle of $1.609.

image 90547
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Weather outlooks appear to be even more bearish this morning with extreme warmth expected across the Eastern US through the first week of March.  Below to much below normal readings will encompass the West. The Midwest is expected to see near record high temps mid week with the warmth spreading into the East early next week.  The NWS 3 to 4 week outlook for Mar 9-22 shows below normal conditions in the SW while the rest of the US is expected to average normal. 

Source: NOAA

Production levels have fallen from highs earlier this month near 106 BCF/day.  Output is still averaging more than 105 BCF/day month to date which is nearly 5 BCF/day higher than last year.

More producers appear to be taking a cue from Chesapeake and are adjusting their output in response to market conditions.  This collaborative effort could result in a possible change in market direction.

 

​​image 90549
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Futures prices are sharply higher this morning with the spot month up 9 cents ahead of tomorrow’s expiration.  Signs of production cuts ahead appear to be the sole focus.  

Technical Analysis
image 90550
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot March 24 natural gas contract traded down to a 3 ½ year low at 1.522 in last week’s holiday-shortened trade closing Friday at 1.603.  For the week, the contract was nearly unchanged at down 6 ticks but closed lower on a weekly basis for a 4th consecutive week.

Last week’s 1.522 low was technically important as it came at nearly the same level the market bottomed  in March 2020 at 1.519.

Volume has fallen sharply over the past seven trading days which could be a sign that selling pressure is easing.

Seasonally, a post-winter low has been set in February or March during 7 out of the past 8 years.

10 day moving average resistance is at 1.660 today followed by weekly high resistance at 1.790-1.800.  A breakout above 1.800 will turn the near term trend back higher.

If lower-1.500 support is broken, 1.250-1.300 will become the next downside objective.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 35.96

Seasonal Prices
image 90553
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90552
Source: Bloomberg, CME
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Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90381
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90382
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 90554
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

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