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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-28-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 90758
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 90759
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices settled mixed yesterday.  The Mar contract ended lower on low volume while the new spot month Apr contract settled higher amid bargain buying and a drop in output.  Mar nat gas expiring yesterday down 4.4 cents at $1.615 with Apr closing up 6.4 cents at $1.808.

image 90760
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The notable increase in the 5 yr avg storage surplus since mid January looks set to continue over the coming few weeks. Estimates for this week’s storage report suggest the surplus could grow another 50 BCF while next week’s report could potentially add another 65 BCF to the surplus.  Platts is calling for a draw of 90 BCF in the week ended Feb 23. This compares to last year’s draw 79 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 143 BCF.  Estimates are higher than the previous week due to a 1 BCF/day increase in demand and a 900 MMcf/day drop in supply.  

image 90761
Source: NOAA

The supply/demand balance remains bearish overall but low prices are starting to cause producers to scale back activity.  While this will help tighten the market and eventually drive prices higher, it will take time for these effect to become evident. A cutback in drilling typically takes at least 6 months while deferring well completions takes 1 to 3 months. Output yesterday fell to 103 BCF/day and is coming in this morning at 103.6 BCF/day.  

 

​​image 90763
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Prices are higher this morning as a cold shot moving across the central and eastern US has boosted heating demand this morning by nearly 11 BCF/day.  We are also seeing an early bout of cooling demand in the South Central US, particularly Texas.

Technical Analysis
image 90764
Source: Bloomberg, CME

A large gap has been created on the natural gas daily continuation chart with expiration of the March 24 contract on Tuesday which settled at 1.615, .193 lower than the new front month April 24 contract which settled at 1.808.

It appears a post-winter seasonal low is in place with bullish divergences appearing on both the summer 24 and winter 24-25 strip indexes.  While setbacks are expected, weakness should be well supported.

1.800 resistance has been broken turning the lower-2.000 area into the next upside objective for the April 24 contract.

The bottom of the gap created during the March 24 expiration between 1.600-1.800 is near term support followed by the 1.511 low set in Tuesday’s early trade.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 45.09

Seasonal Prices
image 90650
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90649
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90648
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90381
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90382
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 90766
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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