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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-12-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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fundamentals & weather
May futures traded mostly rangebound on Tuesday, maintaining all of Monday’s gains as fundamentals were mostly steady.  Weather forecasts yesterday pointed to cooler trends in the Midwest and warming conditions in the South over the next 6-10 days.  May futures settled 1.4 cents higher at $2.186.

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The season’s first net injection is projected for the week ended April 7.  Platts is calling for a build of 28 BCF which would match the 5 yr avg build and exceed last year’s build of 8 BCF.  Injections are expected to increase for the week in progress with projections ranging from 41 to 66 BCF. 

 

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Averaging 13.8 BCF/day so far this month, feedgas demand remains a positive factor for nat gas prices. Deliveries are on pace to set a new monthly record before spring maintenance kicks in during May and June.  LNG feedgas is estimated this morning at 14.4 BCF/day, according to Platts.  
 
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Demand has weakened over the past several days, falling from 102.3 BCF/day last Friday to 89.9 BCF as of this morning.  Res/comm usage dropped to 16 BCF/day yesterday, the lowest level since late Oct.  Power burn is also trending lower.  
Demand will continue to ease this week before inching back up above 91 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks as cooler weather moves back in. 
Prices are unchanged this morning with prices maintaining yesterday’s gains.  
technical analysis
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The May 23 natural gas contract closed flat on Tuesday settling at 2.186 but held above the 10 day moving average for a 2nd day.

Trend following indexes are in a bullish alignment with bullish divergences on the short term index and daily RSI which could indicate a post-winter low has finally been set.

2.240-2.260 is near term resistance followed by the 40 day moving average currently at 2.360 on the spot contract daily chart.

A breakout above the 40 day average would be further confirmation that a low is in place.

10 day moving average support is at 2.125 today followed by weekly low support at 1.944.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 47.10

seasonal prices
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