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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-17-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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fundamentals & weather
Nat gas prices settled more than 5% higher on Friday amid short covering following the drop below $2 while near term forecasts shifted colder than previously expected.  May futures settled 10.7 cents higher at $2.114. For the week, prices rose 5.2%.  

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High production levels continue to be a source of pressure.  Dry output averaged 101.6 BCF/day during Q1, up 1.4% from a year ago.  Output has remained persistently strong this month despite scheduled maintenance.  Over the past week, production has sustained levels above 100 BCF/day.   MTD, output is averaging 100.5 BCF/day, up 4.2 BCF/day from a year ago. Producers are expected to remain active due to expectations for a surge in LNG demand next year. 

 

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The weekend forecast trended cooler for the 6-10 day period.  A widespread coverage of below to much below normal readings is now expected from the interior West to the Plains, Midwest and South early in the period, spreading across the East Coast mid period.  
Below normal temps continue to dominate the Midwest and East during the 11-15 day period while the West averages above normal. 
 
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Spot month gas prices are extending last week’s rally as temps plunge across parts of the Midwest, causing a resurgence in heating demand.  

Demand this morning is up more than 9 BCF day over day with res/comm usage accounting for 8.5 BCF of the increase.  Total demand is estimated at 100 BCF/day.  

technical analysis
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The May 23 natural gas contract traded down to a 1.946 low on Friday holding above 1.944 weekly low support.

With support holding, the trend reversed back higher into the close with the May contract ending the day at 2.114, up .107. 

Friday was the 6th time since late-February that the spot contract traded under the 2.000 handle.  There has not yet been a single daily close under the 2.000 level during 2023.

10 day moving average resistance at 2.115 has been broken overnight turning the 40 day average at 2.330 into the next area of resistance.   

Trend following indexes are in a bullish alignment with bullish divergences on the short term index and daily RSI.  A close above the 40 day average should indicate a post-winter low has been set.

1.944 remains primary support.  

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 48.28

seasonal prices
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forward curve pricing
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