

The nat gas rally continued into Monday’s session, driving prices up to 4 month highs following a decline in output and an increase in feedgas flows. June futures settled 12.5 cents higher at $2.751.

Feedgas demand is averaging 12.7 BCF/day so far this month following the return of all 3 trains at Freeport LNG. Feedgas flows slid Monday to 12.6 BCF/day from Friday’s 13.4 BCF/day due mostly to a reduction in flows to Corpus Christi.
US LNG feedgas is coming in this morning at 13.1 BCF/day, up 0.5 BCF/day. Freeport has nearly concluded its bottlenecking expansion that should further increase feedgas demand in the coming months while the ongoing outage at Cameron LNG should wrap up by the end of the month
Dry production this month is averaging 99.5 BCF/day which is 2.8 BCF/day lower than May 2023. After hitting 100.1 BCF/day on Friday, output has fallen back to 99.4 BCF/day as of this morning. Platts projects production will remain rangebound over the next 2 weeks, averaging about 99.7 BCF/day.

The spot month June contract traded down about 3% from yesterday's close early this morning. Losses however are beginning to dry up with near term months currently trading mixed.

The June 24 natural gas contract is trading down in today’s early trade after closing higher 10 out of the past 13 sessions including a 4-day run of consecutively higher closes.
The June contract settled Monday at 2.751, up .125 (4.7%), and traded up to a 2.798 overnight high before selling off.
Daily RSI was at 78.89 on Monday’s close, well above the 70 level considered “overbought”. Bearish divergences have also been forming on the 60-minute chart oscillators warning of a possible correction following 3-consecutive higher weekly closes.
The 61.8% retracement of the 2024 downtrend at 2.660 broken as resistance on Monday is near term support today. Longer term support is at 2.445-2.455 where the 10 and 200 day moving averages have converged.
The next area of resistance above the 2.798 overnight high is the 78% retracement of the 2024 downtrend at 2.970.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -74.58 (in overbought area)






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