

Spot month gas prices collapsed to start the week as power burn is under pressure from rising wind and solar generation, production levels remain steady while forecasts turned less hot for the start of July. Aug futures settled 28.3 cents to settle at $3.46. The decline marked a weak end to Q2 with prices down nearly 15% for the period.

LNG feedgas flows backed off from weekend highs yesterday, coming in at 15.3 BCF/day. Sabine Pass flows climbed back above 4 BCF/day however falling nominations at Corpus Christi to just 1.35 BCF/day offset some of that increase. LNG feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 16.2 BCF/day.
Despite record heat last week, power burns fell short of last summer’s highs. Power burn across the East peaked last Tuesday at 24.1 BCF/day while total US power burn reached 50 BCF/day, both lower than last summer’s peaks. Strong wind generation and record solar generation last week likely offset some of the gas demand.

Prices continue to sink lower this morning as weather models lost CDDs overnight, suggesting demand could ease to more moderate levels while allowing storage injections to ramp back up following this week's report.
Last week’s record setting heat is expected to result in a slowdown in storage injections. Estimates are calling for a build near 50 BCF for the week ended Jun 27.
Weather remains a main market driver as we head into the peak of summer.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract began the new week of trade on Monday with a steep sell off losing .283 (7.7%) to close the day at 3.456. Volume was moderate at 212,922 contracts.
All of Friday’s gains plus some were erased on Monday’s sell off with the August contract closing just above 3.400 double bottom support on the August chart.
3.400 support has been broken overnight turning the bottom of the gap created last week during expiration of the July 25 contract at 3.320 into the next area of support.
Longer term support levels are last week’s 3.199 low posted by the expired July 25 contract followed by 2.750 which is former trend line resistance which last held in April at the 2.859 level.
The 2026 strip broke out under trend line support on Monday turning the near term trend back down. 200 day moving average support is currently at 4.010 which is where the strip last bottomed in April.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 45.29






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