Yesterday (14), the most active Brent contract closed lower, ending the session at USD 94.79/bbl (-4.60%). WTI futures followed a sharper downward path, closing the day at USD 91.20/bbl (-7.87%).
Oil prices retreated broadly during the previous session, mainly reflecting rumors related to a reopening of diplomatic channels between the United States and Iran. Overall, the market priced in the possibility of a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in a scenario where a definitive peace resolution between the two countries is confirmed.
This morning (14), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading flat at USD 94.9/bbl (+0.1%) as of 06:30. The lack of concrete information on progress in diplomatic negotiations makes it difficult to assess the risk related to the continuity of the conflict, leaving investors in a wait-and-see mode as they await further developments.
US naval blockade completely paralyzes Iran’s maritime trade
In less than 36 hours, the US claimed to have fully halted Iranian maritime trade. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below the more than 130 daily crossings observed prior to the conflict that began on February 28.
Why it matters: The blockade affects the main energy export channel of the Gulf, increasing structural pressure on global supply even amid diplomatic optimism.
Overview: According to the IEA, the conflict has already caused the largest supply disruption in history, with a loss of 10.1 million bpd in March. The blockade was expanded to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea following the failure of negotiations.
- On the first full day of the operation, only eight vessels crossed the strait. War-risk insurance costs remain elevated, with brokers projecting little or no commercial traffic in the short term.
- In addition, the US confirmed it does not intend to renew the sanctions waiver on Iranian oil stored on offshore platforms, further pressuring the global balance.
- The inability to move volumes through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing global refineries to seek alternative supply from other producing regions, pushing quality and origin differentials to unprecedented levels. A WTI Midland cargo for delivery in Rotterdam was traded at a record premium of USD 22.8/bbl above European benchmark prices in Tuesday’s session.
What to expect? Even with diplomatic progress, normalization of maritime flows will depend on operational stabilization and the rebuilding of insurance coverage, which should keep traffic depressed in the short term.
- At the same time, the spread between physical and financial prices continues to trade above USD 30/bbl, highlighting the stress on the global balance amid the lack of supply from the Persian Gulf.
US–Iran negotiations: signs of resumption in Islamabad, but critical issues remain
The US and Iran signaled a resumption of negotiations in the coming days in Pakistan. Trump downplayed the need to extend the ceasefire through April 21, while JD Vance adopted a more optimistic tone.
Why it matters: Each diplomatic signal has triggered a reduction in the risk premium embedded in oil prices. However, the nuclear issue remains the main sticking point, with a wide gap between the parties’ proposals — which may limit the declines seen in previous sessions if a definitive peace resolution is not consolidated.
Overview: Rumors suggest the US is demanding a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear program, while Iran is proposing three to five years.
What to expect? Market attention should remain focused on new diplomatic developments in the short term.
- Concrete signs of progress in nuclear negotiations should maintain downward pressure on prices.
- A breakdown, on the other hand — especially with the ceasefire expiring on April 21 — would tend to reintroduce a renewed bullish trajectory.
API points to an increase in US oil inventories
The market awaits the release of official US inventory data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) this Wednesday (15) at 11:30 a.m. (Brasília time). Preliminary API surveys yesterday indicate that crude oil inventories likely rose slightly over the week, while distillate and gasoline inventories declined.
Why it matters? In the context of the largest supply shock in history, weekly US inventory data gain additional relevance as a gauge of pressure on the US domestic balance and the pace at which volumes redirected from other origins are being absorbed.
Overview: Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicate an increase in crude inventories for the third consecutive week, suggesting that US domestic restocking is ongoing, supported by ample production and the transfer of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) barrels to commercial inventories.
What to expect? The EIA data reading is likely to be interpreted in the context of the ongoing global rebalancing. Higher domestic inventories may reinforce the view that the US has capacity to increase exports, but do not necessarily provide significant relief to international physical markets dependent on the Gulf.
