Daily Petroleum Report

By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst

Tue, 12 May 2026, 12:18

Brent Rises Amid Fears of Military Escalation in the Middle East

Yesterday (11), the most active Brent contract closed higher at USD 104.21/bbl (+2.88%), after hitting an intraday high of USD 105.99/bbl. WTI futures followed a similar trajectory, closing at USD 98.07/bbl (+2.78%), with a session peak of USD 100.37/bbl.

The movement was driven by Trump’s rejection of the Iranian counterproposal and the U.S. president’s statement that the ceasefire was “hanging by a thread.” Iran, in turn, defended its demands as legitimate, leading to decreased optimism about the agreement preventing direct offensives between the U.S. and Iran.

This morning (12), Brent is trading at USD 107.06/bbl (+2.70%), supported by the deepening impasse and new U.S. sanctions targeting individuals and companies facilitating Iranian oil exports to China. The market is weighing the risk of military escalation in the Middle East against expectations that the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for this week could open a new diplomatic window.

Trump Increases Pressure as Diplomatic Stalemate Deepens

The diplomatic landscape deteriorated rapidly during yesterday’s session. After rejecting Iran’s counterproposal on Sunday, Trump stated that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was “hanging by a thread,” signaling a real risk of the formal collapse of the armistice in place since early April.

Why It Matters: The heightened rhetoric from the White House poses risks not only to stalled diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran but also to the potential suspension of the ceasefire agreement between the two nations. Such a scenario could lead to a significant escalation of conflict in the Middle East, positively influencing oil prices at the start of the session.

Last night (11), the Pentagon revealed the location of a nuclear submarine in Gibraltar, which the market interpreted as a message to Tehran that Washington is increasing pressure for Iran to accept the peace terms proposed by the White House.
Meanwhile, the physical market remains highly fragile, with reports showing OPEC 12 production in April reaching its lowest level in over twenty years, hitting volumes near 20 million barrels per day (mbpd). Notably, before the conflict, the group’s supply was 28.6 mbpd.

Outlook: Beyond the risks of renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the market is observing an increase in hostilities among countries in the Persian Gulf region.

According to the WSJ, the UAE conducted military strikes on Iranian territory, including an operation targeting a refinery on Lavan Island in April. This marks direct involvement by the Emirates in the conflict, which had not been publicly acknowledged before.

What to Expect: Oil prices are likely to remain supported as long as diplomatic negotiations remain stalled, with investors pricing in the potential for extended supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Additionally, market attention over the coming days is expected to focus on developments from the Trump-Xi Jinping summit, where the Middle East conflict is set to be a key discussion topic between the U.S. and Chinese presidents.
A potential agreement that ending the war is necessary could lead to increased pressure from China for Tehran to return to diplomatic channels, potentially exerting downward pressure on energy commodity prices. Conversely, a lack of progress could sustain oil futures at higher levels, potentially breaking above the USD 110/bbl mark again.

Energy

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
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Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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