El Niño Dryness Tests Both Colombia Arabica and Vietnam Robusta

El Niño coffee flowering risk is greatest when dry, hot weather lands on the stages that set the next harvest, which puts Colombia's arabica and Vietnam's robusta at the center of the supply picture. Heavy rain has left Brazil's arabica crop in very good condition, so attention turns to origins where flowering and fruit development are still exposed. For arabica, the test is if Colombia's more concentrated flowering carries through to a larger crop that eases tight supply of high-quality beans. For robusta, the risk sits in the heat building in Brazil's Rondônia state and in the long dry spells Vietnam has seen in previous El Niño years.

Leonardo Rossetti, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst, covers coffee markets, from Brazil's arabica and robusta producing regions to shifts in the global coffee balance between deficit and surplus. That coverage gives insight into how weather in Colombia, Rondônia and Vietnam is shaping the supply of both arabica and robusta.

Key Themes

• Colombian coffee output runs about 10% behind the prior year's pace after heavy rain disrupted harvesting.
• A more concentrated Colombian flowering offers relief for tight high-quality arabica supply if fruit development avoids El Niño dryness.
• Heat in Rondônia and Vietnam's history of long El Niño dry spells keep robusta weather risk in focus.

Watch the Full Video

Colombia's Concentrated Coffee Flowering Shapes High-Quality Arabica Supply

Colombia's coffee production runs about 10% behind the prior year's pace after heavy rain in the first half of the year impacted the crop and made harvesting more difficult. Rossetti explains that "the hot and dry weather followed by this long period of strong rainfall created more concentrated flowering in some areas," a pattern that could help Colombian output recover. A larger Colombian crop matters well beyond Colombia, specifically because it could help reduce the tight supply of high-quality arabica coffee. According to Rossetti, "The crop needs good weather conditions during the fruit development at the end of the year, and El Niño could bring drier weather to Colombia in this moment."

Robusta Dry-Season Risk Builds in Rondônia and Vietnam

"In previous El Niño years, November and December had some of the longest periods of dry weather in Vietnam," Rossetti says, pointing to the second-largest coffee producer, where the harvest is moving forward and good production volumes are expected. In Brazil, the robusta concern centers on Rondônia state, where high temperatures and lower rainfall overlap with the part of the year when El Niño tends to bring longer dry periods, resulting in added pressure on robusta crops. Robusta supply therefore carries weather risk in two origins at once, even as Vietnam's harvest moves forward. Dry conditions that run on toward Vietnam's next flowering period raise the stakes for the following robusta crop.

El Niño Coffee Flowering Risk Shows Up First in Rainfall and Heat

El Niño coffee flowering risk shows up first in rainfall and temperature conditions across the key growing windows in Colombia, Brazil and Vietnam. In Colombia, rainfall during fruit development shows if the concentrated flowering is turning into a larger arabica crop. In Rondônia and Vietnam, the length of dry spells and the level of temperatures show how much pressure robusta crops are under, particularly as Vietnam's next flowering period approaches. Flowering uniformity also matters, since uneven flowering of the kind seen in Brazil's arabica areas can complicate the following harvest.

--- Written by Mohamed Faisal, StoneX Media Editor

--- Expert: Leonardo Rossetti, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst