Sr. Technical Strategist
EUR/USD has recovered nearly 1.4% from its low after snapping a five-week losing streak, and that rebound now runs straight into a dense stretch of eurozone and U.S. economic data. Eurozone PMI data matters for EUR/USD because purchasing managers' index figures from both sides of the Atlantic land on the same day, making them a prime source of event risk for the pair. The bounce comes off a major long-term support zone, yet the broader downtrend on the monthly chart remains intact. Political strain in France and a widening gap between French and German bond yields add a further layer of volatility heading into the releases.
With more than two decades of experience trading FX, commodities and equity indices, Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, applies a structured technical approach across multiple time frames with a medium-term, event-driven focus. His coverage pairs chart structure in major currency pairs such as EUR/USD with the economic calendar releases that move them.
Eurozone and U.S. purchasing managers' index releases land on the same day, putting the EUR/USD rebound up against two sets of economic data at once. Boutros points to "a host of PMI figures both from the U.S. and the eurozone on the same day" as the standout item on the economic calendar. Because EUR/USD sets the euro directly against the U.S. dollar, readings from both economies feed straight into the pair. The data arrives with EUR/USD only modestly above a major long-term support zone, having recovered nearly 1.4% from its low. Notably, the pair still sits about 5% below its August high and more than 8% below its January high, which keeps the bounce firmly in the context of a broader decline. According to Boutros, the PMI data "will likely be one of the major catalysts for the next major move" for EUR/USD.
Political unrest in France has pushed French government bond yields higher and widened their gap over German yields, adding a political layer of volatility to EUR/USD on top of the data calendar. The euro has been dealing with headlines out of Paris, with Boutros describing "that spread between French and German yields just continuing to blow out". That backdrop arrives as eurozone consumer confidence data lands ahead of the PMI releases, giving the euro two eurozone readings to absorb in quick succession. On the charts, EUR/USD monthly RSI has slipped below 50 for the first time in more than a year, a shift in long-term momentum that coincides with the bond market strain. Daily momentum, in contrast, has recovered from oversold conditions, leaving room for the euro's rebound to extend within the broader downtrend. As a result, the French yield spread now sits alongside the PMI releases as one of the key forces shaping how far the EUR/USD recovery can run.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
EUR/USD has bounced off major long-term support, but same-day eurozone and U.S. PMI releases now put that rebound to a direct test. Widening French yield spreads and fading monthly momentum add pressure to a recovery unfolding within a broader downtrend.
UK inflation data now holds the key to sterling after strong jobs and wage figures pushed Bank of England rate hike bets close to fully priced. A hot reading would add to sterling's support, whereas a cooler one leaves the rate hike premium exposed.
Dollar expected to reflect electoral race, bets on US interest rates, IPCA-15, and AI concerns
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
