By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
The euro dollar is shifting from a failed breakout attempt into a deeper corrective phase, with price action now moving decisively away from multi-year resistance. This transition reflects a broader recalibration in foreign exchange markets as technical levels begin to reassert control following an extended rally from the 2022 lows. The current move places increasing importance on whether structural support can hold as downside momentum builds. The outcome of this phase will likely determine whether the euro dollar resumes its longer-term uptrend or enters a more prolonged period of weakness.
Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at FOREX.com, has spent years analyzing multi-timeframe price structures across global currency markets. His approach combines long-term technical frameworks with macro drivers, allowing him to identify inflection points where trends either stabilize or break down under pressure.
Euro dollar price action has decisively shifted lower after failing to sustain gains at a critical multi-year resistance zone, marking the start of a structured correction. Michael Boutros highlights that "we rallied into there in January… but on a closed basis couldn’t even get near it", confirming the lack of conviction at higher levels. This rejection has resulted in a break below January range lows, reinforcing downside momentum and signaling that buyers are no longer in control in the near term. Consequently, the euro dollar now faces increasing pressure to test lower support zones before any meaningful stabilization can occur.
Euro dollar is approaching key technical support that will likely determine whether the broader uptrend from 2022 remains intact. Boutros notes that "the first level or the major level of support we’re looking for… comes in near 1.1275", identifying a convergence of long-term retracement and structural trend support. This level is critical because a sustained reaction here could signal the formation of an exhaustion low within the correction phase. However, failure to hold this zone would increase the probability of a deeper washout, potentially extending the corrective move and delaying any recovery in the euro dollar.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at FOREX.com
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