By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL variations | Daily: +0.14% | Weekly: +0.02% | Monthly: -1.08% | Annual: -6.70% | In 12 months: -7.89%
Dollar index variations | Daily: -0.02% | Weekly: -0.22% | Monthly: -0.45% | Annual: +2.47% | In 12 months: +2.14%
US: Historical and projected interest rates – updated July 17, 2026
With the release of the last major macroeconomic indicators before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, investors are recalibrating their expectations for the trajectory of US monetary policy.
Why this matters: Signs of slowing inflation reduce bets on short-term interest rate hikes, lowering yields on US Treasury securities and weakening the dollar globally.
Inflation data surprises: Last week's June readings of CPI and PPI surprised with lower-than-expected results, pointing to deflation of 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
Inflation measures for the United States (12-month accumulations)
Kevin Warsh in US Congress: During the week, Kevin Warsh participated in the semiannual testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman to Congress.
Other Federal Reserve officials: Unlike Kevin Warsh, other Fed advisors were clearer and provided more signals throughout the week.
Expected impact on the USDBRL: bullish
Among the factors influencing the real's behavior next week, the progress of US-imposed trade measures emerges as a significant risk vector.
Why this matters: The increased cost of Brazilian products in the US market reduces export competitiveness and foreign currency inflow, while greater unpredictability in trade relations deters foreign investment in domestic assets.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bearish
The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday (23) is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% annually.
Why this matters? The prospect of the ECB maintaining high interest rates, or even possible new hikes, tends to strengthen the euro globally.
In detail: Recent CPI data indicated a slowdown, with inflation over the last 12 months decreasing from 3.2% to 2.8% in June, though still above the ECB's 2% target.
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