As of January 2026, crude oil prices are being shaped less by short-term shocks and more by a loosening global balance. Prices fell sharply in late 2025 toward the 60 dollar per barrel area as supply growth accelerated faster than demand. This imbalance became more visible in the second half of the year as seasonal demand faded. The following analysis is derived directly from a primary-source interview detailing how oversupply is resetting market expectations.
Bruno Cordeiro Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX, specializes in global crude and refined product balances with a focus on supply-side dynamics. His quarterly outlook work tracks production trends across OPEC and non-OPEC producers, giving him direct insight into how surplus conditions are reshaping price forecasts.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Crude prices weakened as supply growth outpaced uneven global demand.
Secondary producers are driving the bulk of new supply entering 2026.
Geopolitical risks are adding volatility without tightening balances.
Global oil oversupply is exerting sustained downward pressure on prices even as volatility persists. Santos explains that the market experienced "a clear bearish trend that was fundamentally about the loosening global balance", driven by faster-than-expected production growth. He notes that output increased across the United States and secondary producers, while demand growth was "lower and regional". Consequently, price expectations shifted lower for late 2025 and into 2026 as surplus conditions became entrenched.
Secondary Producers Are Resetting the 2026 Outlook
Supply growth from secondary producers is redefining how markets price crude heading into 2026. Santos highlights that Brazil and Canada are expected to lead non-OPEC growth, citing offshore expansion and new wells coming online. At the same time, he observes that shale growth is likely capped because current prices make production less attractive, stating that shale oil carries "operational costs that are higher". As a result, incremental supply from secondary producers is becoming the central factor resetting oil price expectations.
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--- Expert: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst, StoneX
Energy
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