By: Razan Hilal, Market Analyst
Gold has broken above the declining resistance that capped every rally since January, and the levels now holding it up were drawn long before this rebound started. Gold long term support currently rests on two things, a trend line that acted as resistance a decade ago and now works as a floor, and the retracement grid measured off gold's entire all time advance. That is a different question from where gold goes next week. It is the question of what has to fail before the bullish structure is genuinely broken, and on a monthly and six-month view the answer sits a long way below the market.
Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst and a Chartered Market Technician, has spent seven years analyzing foreign exchange, equities, commodities, and equity indices, and has produced more than 100 market analysis reports. Her work centers on technical and intermarket analysis, tracking how currency structure feeds through into precious metals across monthly and multi-year charts.
Gold's bullish rebound is being driven by the U.S. dollar index breaking below the trend line connecting its consecutive higher lows since January 2026, not by anything internal to the metal. That distinction matters for anyone mapping support, because a level only holds while the mechanism behind it holds. Hilal is explicit about where the strength comes from, noting that "gold and silver charts are holding on to their strong bullish rebound, supported by the dollar's breakdown below 2026 uptrend and ongoing central bank buying". Conversely, the U.S. dollar index has not broken the far older channel of higher lows running back to 2008, which sits beneath it, so the dollar weakness is confirmed on one time frame and unconfirmed on another. According to Hilal, that unresolved second break is precisely why "short term volatility risks remain elevated as markets reassess geopolitical developments and the Fed's policy outlook".
Silver's downside map runs deeper than its yearly lows, and the level that anchors it was set more than four decades ago. Below the multi-month resistance silver broke in August 2026 and is now retesting from above, the chart steps down through a confluence zone built from a previous resistance line connecting the October and November 2025 highs, then into a far older marker. Working down from the monthly chart, Hilal points out that "from monthly time frame, we can see that that level aligns with a multi-decade resistance connecting the consecutive highs since the 1980s", a zone that also coincides with the golden ratio retracement of silver's entire all time advance. Specifically, the same level is reinforced by the October 2025 low, meaning three independent methods of measurement land on one area. For a trader sizing risk rather than chasing a target, that convergence is what separates a support zone worth respecting from a line on a chart.
"Price action is currently holding on to that strong bullish rebound, aligning with the confluence of a previous resistance turned into a support ten years later in 2026", Hilal explains, describing the structure that sits under gold on a monthly view. The line in question connects gold's consecutive higher highs since 2016, and its conversion from ceiling to floor is the single most important feature of the long-term chart, because it also aligns with a retracement of the all-time advance measured from the historic low. Below it, the next markers step down toward a multi-month resistance zone respected across April 2025, evidenced by the way price stalled there before. As a result, the bullish structure survives any pullback that holds above the 2016 line and the declining resistance gold has already cleared, and only genuinely breaks on a monthly close beneath the recorded 2026 low. Hilal frames the wider picture the same way, expecting "the bullish or long-term bullish continuation scenario on the gold charts similar to that seen on the silver chart, with expected short-term headwinds in line with developing geopolitical risks".
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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Gold's rebound is being framed by levels that were set long before it began, a resistance line from a decade ago that now works as support and a retracement grid drawn off the entire history of the move. Razan Hilal maps where that floor sits and what has to fail before it matters.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
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