CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Amid ongoing volatility in U.S. trade policy, tariff decisions over the past year continue to reshape global coffee flows, alter sourcing strategies, and shift traditional supplier relationships. From Brazil’s instant‑coffee dispute to Colombia’s tariff reprieve and China’s steep import rates, CoffeeNetwork has compiled the latest, sourced developments on every major coffee origin affected by U.S. actions.
Brazil: Relief for Green Coffee, Pain for Instant Coffee
The biggest story remains Brazil, where the U.S. has lifted tariffs on green and roasted coffee but kept a 50% tariff on Brazilian instant coffee, a move that has baffled the country’s industry groups. While whole‑bean, roasted, flavored instant, and cappuccino‑style blends are now tariff‑exempt, regular instant coffee remains fully tariffed, prompting Brazilian associations to demand clarification.
The consequences have been immediate: instant‑coffee exports to the U.S. fell 35% in December, even though the broader tariff rollback boosted other product categories. Additional complexity remains, as Brazil still faces 40% tariffs on several other agricultural exports, including some coffee‑related goods, despite the partial rollback.
Colombia: Tariffs Lifted, but Political Threats Linger
In a major relief for exporters, the U.S. removed the 10% tariff on Colombian coffee and cocoa on November 15, 2025, reversing an earlier decision that had worried producers and cooperatives. The rollback exempted coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and tropical fruits from tariff measures.
Despite this positive development, political tensions sparked by a diplomatic feud created real fears in late 2025 that the U.S. might raise tariffs on Colombian goods—possibly up to 50%, matching Brazil’s peak rate. While no such tariff has been enacted, the threat underscores the fragility of the trade relationship.
In the meantime, Colombia’s strong production and rising U.S. demand position it as a key alternative supplier amid Brazilian uncertainty
Vietnam: No Active Tariffs, but Included in U.S. Tariff Threats
Vietnam—now responsible for 17% of global coffee output—was named in sweeping U.S. tariff threats in 2025. However, no Vietnam‑specific coffee tariff has been enacted.
Vietnamese exporters remain cautious, especially given the U.S. administration’s willingness to use tariffs strategically. Yet Vietnam still enjoys full U.S. market access at present, benefiting from record export earnings and expected 2025/26 harvest growth.
Mexico: Tariff‑Free Under USMCA
Mexican coffee enjoys one of the most favorable positions among producing countries: Green, unroasted Mexican coffee enters the U.S. tariff‑free under the USMCA trade agreement.
Even as the U.S. introduced new “reciprocal tariffs” globally, Mexican green coffee retains privileged status. This makes Mexico a stable sourcing origin in a period defined by volatility.
China: Among the Highest Coffee Tariffs in the World
China faces one of the steepest tariff burdens: Chinese coffee imports into the U.S. currently face an effective tariff rate of 54%, combining the “reciprocal tariff” rate with earlier duties.
While China is still a small coffee exporter, the tariff effectively shuts Chinese‑grown coffee out of the U.S. market.
Ethiopia & Indonesia: Named in Tariff Programs, but No Enacted Coffee Tariffs
Ethiopia and Indonesia—major Arabica and Robusta suppliers—were included in the U.S. administration’s broad 2025 tariff plans. However, neither country has an enacted U.S. coffee tariff as of January 2026. This keeps both origins accessible to U.S. buyers despite rising geopolitical tensions.
Peru: Stable Supply With No Tariff Exposure
Peru remains tariff‑free in the U.S. market. U.S. importers are increasing their interest in Peru for diversification, especially given rising concerns about Brazil and the political risk around Colombia.
U.S. tariff actions have already reshaped procurement flows. In 2025, U.S. tariffs caused Brazil’s coffee shipments to the U.S. to fall 33.9%, allowing Germany to overtake the U.S. as Brazil’s top buyer for the first time in more than a decade. Brazil’s overall export volume fell 20.8%, despite record value, due to the tariff shock. Colombia has benefited from the tariff war, increasing its U.S. sales by 14.7% between January and August 2025 as Brazil lost share.
Aside from tariffs for producing countries, increasing tensions between the US and EU have threatened the trade flow of processed coffee between the two regions.
The EU and the United States struck a trade agreement in July 2025, intended to reduce tariffs on European goods, restore predictability, and stabilize the transatlantic trade environment. However, this agreement has not been fully ratified or implemented due to escalating political tensions surrounding President Trump’s renewed push to annex Greenland. On January 21, 2026, the European Parliament formally paused the ratification and approval process for the EU‑U.S. trade deal.
The suspension came directly after President Trump issued new tariff threats—10% beginning Feb 1, rising to 25% on June 1—targeting eight EU countries and the U.K. in retaliation for their opposition to the U.S. obtaining Greenland. Within 24 hours of the suspension, President Trump reversed his tariff plans, announcing he would not impose the February 1 tariffs after reaching what he called a “framework of a future deal” with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, involving Arctic security cooperation. On January 22, 2026, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said the U.S. reversal was sufficient to restart the ratification process, including holding a preliminary vote in the coming days. However, EU leaders remain cautious with the agreement regarding Greenland neither defined nor resolved.
Although coffee itself is not the primary target in the U.S.–EU tensions, the trade‑agreement freeze and tariff threats have major indirect consequences for how coffee moves between the two markets—particularly because both sides serve as global re‑export hubs, roasting centers, and price‑setting markets in the world coffee economy. Even a temporary threat causes contract delays, pre‑shipment holding, and inventory bloating at EU ports.
These shifts highlight a broader recalibration of the global coffee trade, driven not by agronomics or market fundamentals but by tariff structures and geopolitical friction.
Alexis Rubinstein
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