Monday, June 8, 2026
TODAY'S MARKET MOVERS (All Times CT)
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Time (CT)
|
Event
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Consensus
|
Prior
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Impact
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Affected
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10:00 AM
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US: Export Inspections
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—
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—
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MEDIUM
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Grains & Oilseeds
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10:00 AM
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US: Treasury Buyback Operation
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—
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—
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LOW
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Rates
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03:00 PM
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US: Crop Progress
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—
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—
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MEDIUM
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Grains & Oilseeds
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Source: CMEGroup.com
HOW TO USE THIS REPORT
This report provides daily market commentary. The Trend Probability Index (TPI) combines intraday range positioning with multi-timeframe pivot analysis to measure market structure. Unlike lagging indicators, MCI analyzes previous day's conviction to project the next session's probable trade setups. Each section presents the directional bias and key technical reference levels — pivot, support/resistance, and invalidation. Bias remains intact until settlement breaches the invalidation level. The framework is intended to inform your own analysis, not to replace it — apply independent judgment and risk management before any trading decision.
While others rely on lagging indicators, MCI measures directional bias through intraday range positioning and multi-timeframe technical structure. Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.
MARGIN ESTIMATES: Margin and risk figures shown per contract are estimates based on exchange-published SPAN parameters and are subject to change without notice. Actual margin requirements are set by the exchanges and your FCM; always confirm with your broker before placing trades.
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MACRO
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Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERM26) | TPI: 0.28 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 131.04
DESK NOTE: The broad commodity gauge took the whole risk-off wave on the chin, nearly 3 points lower and pinned to the lower range as a firm jobs read sent the dollar surging and knocked everything priced against it.
TECH: Close: 132.63 | High: 133.99 | Low: 132.12 | R2: 134.78 | R1: 133.71 | Pivot: 132.91 | S1: 131.84 | S2: 131.04 | Weekly Pivot: 134.12 | TPI: 0.28 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Acceptance below 134.12 keeps sellers in command.
Entry: Sell at 132.91 or below 131.84.
Stop: Above 133.71
Primary Target: 131.84
Extended Target: 131.04
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 133.71 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $932 | Maintenance: $829 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)
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GRAINS & OILSEEDS
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Corn (ZCEN26) | TPI: 0.22 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 410.75
DESK NOTE: Corn couldn't get out of its own way, 7 cents lower and offered onto the lows — and with Monday's export inspections and crop progress both on deck, the bulls need a reason to show up that this tape isn't giving them.
TECH: Close: 417.50 | High: 424.50 | Low: 416.00 | R2: 427.75 | R1: 422.75 | Pivot: 419.25 | S1: 414.25 | S2: 410.75 | Weekly Pivot: 427.50 | TPI: 0.22 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Failed trade above 427.50 leaves the tape offered.
Entry: Sell at 419.25 or below 414.25.
Stop: Above 422.75
Primary Target: 414.25
Extended Target: 410.75
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 422.75 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $1,210 | Maintenance: $1,100 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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Soybeans (ZSEN26) | TPI: 0.27 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 1109.00
DESK NOTE: Beans leaked 8 cents and settled on the lows, sellers leaning on the complex into the weekend with the same export demand questions hanging over Monday's inspections.
TECH: Close: 1121.50 | High: 1132.25 | Low: 1117.50 | R2: 1138.50 | R1: 1130.00 | Pivot: 1123.75 | S1: 1115.25 | S2: 1109.00 | Weekly Pivot: 1144.50 | TPI: 0.27 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The Weekly Pivot at 1144.50 remains the line to reclaim.
Entry: Sell at 1123.75 or below 1115.25.
Stop: Above 1130.00
Primary Target: 1115.25
Extended Target: 1109.00
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 1130.00 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,420 | Maintenance: $2,200 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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Soybean Oil (ZLEN26) | TPI: 0.22 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 71.71
DESK NOTE: Bean oil slid 2.17 cents and settled near the lows, the bid disappearing as the complex failed to find a stabilizing shelf.
TECH: Close: 74.12 | High: 76.72 | Low: 73.61 | R2: 77.93 | R1: 76.02 | Pivot: 74.82 | S1: 72.91 | S2: 71.71 | Weekly Pivot: 75.81 | TPI: 0.22 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Rallies stay suspect beneath 75.81.
Entry: Sell at 74.82 or below 72.91.
Stop: Above 76.02
Primary Target: 72.91
Extended Target: 71.71
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 76.02 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,310 | Maintenance: $2,100 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)
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Soybean Meal (ZMEN26) | TPI: 0.18 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 303.1
DESK NOTE: Meal sank $5.20 and closed on its lows; washed out this far, the snapback that catches fresh shorts is the real risk down here.
TECH: Close: 308.5 | High: 315.0 | Low: 307.7 | R2: 317.7 | R1: 313.1 | Pivot: 310.4 | S1: 305.8 | S2: 303.1 | Weekly Pivot: 316.0 | TPI: 0.18 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Structure stays heavy while price holds below 316.0. Extended read — TPI 0.18 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Entry: Sell at 310.4 or below 305.8.
Stop: Above 313.1
Primary Target: 305.8
Extended Target: 303.1
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 313.1 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $1,705 | Maintenance: $1,550 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
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Chicago Wheat (ZWAN26) | TPI: 0.24 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 572.50
DESK NOTE: Chicago wheat gave back 1.75 cents and couldn't hold the prior day's shelf, the funds pressing the short side with no fresh demand story to lean on.
TECH: Close: 580.00 | High: 587.25 | Low: 578.00 | R2: 591.00 | R1: 585.50 | Pivot: 581.75 | S1: 576.25 | S2: 572.50 | Weekly Pivot: 592.50 | TPI: 0.24 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The weekly read stays negative below 592.50.
Entry: Sell at 581.75 or below 576.25.
Stop: Above 585.50
Primary Target: 576.25
Extended Target: 572.50
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 585.50 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,145 | Maintenance: $1,950 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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KC HRW Wheat (KWEN26) | TPI: 0.53 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: KC wheat was the lone grain to find a footing, half a cent firmer and holding the upper range — a flicker of two-sided trade in a sector that otherwise bled.
TECH: Close: 620.75 | High: 623.00 | Low: 614.00 | R2: 628.25 | R1: 624.50 | Pivot: 619.25 | S1: 615.50 | S2: 610.25 | Weekly Pivot: 632.00 | TPI: 0.53 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Balanced tape; the range holds with no confirmed edge.
Range: 615.50 to 624.50
Upside Break: Above 624.50 targets 628.25
Downside Break: Below 615.50 targets 610.25
MARGIN: Initial: $2,200 | Maintenance: $2,000 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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LIVESTOCK
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Feeder Cattle (GFQ26) | TPI: 0.51 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Feeders bucked the entire board, half a cent higher while everything around them sold — the cattle complex marching to its own drum again, settling mid range with the trade holding above its weekly line.
TECH: Close: 353.900 | High: 358.750 | Low: 351.200 | R2: 362.175 | R1: 358.025 | Pivot: 354.625 | S1: 350.475 | S2: 347.075 | Weekly Pivot: 349.525 | TPI: 0.51 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No directional edge until the range breaks.
Range: 350.475 to 358.025
Upside Break: Above 358.025 targets 362.175
Downside Break: Below 350.475 targets 347.075
MARGIN: Initial: $5,830 | Maintenance: $5,300 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)
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Live Cattle (GLEQ26) | TPI: 0.40 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Live cattle edged up an eighth, quiet but firm, holding above weekly structure while the macro names crumbled.
TECH: Close: 241.650 | High: 245.225 | Low: 240.800 | R2: 246.975 | R1: 244.325 | Pivot: 242.550 | S1: 239.900 | S2: 238.125 | Weekly Pivot: 240.275 | TPI: 0.40 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Buyers and sellers are still trading the bracket, not the trend.
Range: 239.900 to 244.325
Upside Break: Above 244.325 targets 246.975
Downside Break: Below 239.900 targets 238.125
MARGIN: Initial: $3,300 | Maintenance: $3,000 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)
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SOFTS
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Sugar #11 (SBEV26) | TPI: 0.19 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 14.37
DESK NOTE: Sugar barely budged, a tick lower, but it's grinding along the floor of its range now — pressed this hard into the lows, a short-covering pop wouldn't surprise.
TECH: Close: 14.63 | High: 14.94 | Low: 14.59 | R2: 15.07 | R1: 14.85 | Pivot: 14.72 | S1: 14.50 | S2: 14.37 | Weekly Pivot: 14.79 | TPI: 0.19 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No reclaim of 14.79; downside structure remains intact. Extended read — TPI 0.19 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Entry: Sell at 14.72 or below 14.50.
Stop: Above 14.85
Primary Target: 14.50
Extended Target: 14.37
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 14.85 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $875 | Maintenance: $795 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)
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Coffee (KCEU26) | TPI: 0.41 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Coffee churned to a 0.30-cent loss and parked mid range, capped overhead with no follow-through from the bears underneath — a two-sided hold.
TECH: Close: 242.10 | High: 244.80 | Low: 239.20 | R2: 247.65 | R1: 244.85 | Pivot: 242.05 | S1: 239.25 | S2: 236.45 | Weekly Pivot: 247.95 | TPI: 0.41 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The market stays rotational; confirmation needed outside 239.25–244.85.
Range: 239.25 to 244.85
Upside Break: Above 244.85 targets 247.65
Downside Break: Below 239.25 targets 236.45
MARGIN: Initial: $6,827 | Maintenance: $6,206 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)
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Cocoa (CCEU26) | TPI: 0.23 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 3656
DESK NOTE: Cocoa got hit for $204 and closed near its lows, the recent two-sided chop finally resolving lower as buyers failed to defend the lower shelf.
TECH: Close: 3840 | High: 4034 | Low: 3799 | R2: 4126 | R1: 3983 | Pivot: 3891 | S1: 3748 | S2: 3656 | Weekly Pivot: 3970 | TPI: 0.23 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The offer stays in front while 3970 caps the tape.
Entry: Sell at 3891 or below 3748.
Stop: Above 3983
Primary Target: 3748
Extended Target: 3656
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 3983 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $6,380 | Maintenance: $5,800 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)
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Cotton (CTEZ26) | TPI: 0.29 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 75.91
DESK NOTE: Cotton faded 1.01 cents and broke the midweek shelf it had been leaning on, the level that propped it now sitting overhead as resistance.
TECH: Close: 77.48 | High: 78.77 | Low: 76.95 | R2: 79.55 | R1: 78.52 | Pivot: 77.73 | S1: 76.70 | S2: 75.91 | Weekly Pivot: 78.68 | TPI: 0.29 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Bears keep control unless 78.68 is recovered on settlement.
Entry: Sell at 77.73 or below 76.70.
Stop: Above 78.52
Primary Target: 76.70
Extended Target: 75.91
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 78.52 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,343 | Maintenance: $2,130 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)
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METALS
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Gold (Q) (GCEQ26) | TPI: 0.23 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 4231.4
DESK NOTE: Gold took the brunt of the firm payrolls print, 139.7 points lower and slammed onto its lows as a stronger dollar and a back-up in yields did the metal no favors — risk-off didn't save it this time.
TECH: Close: 4365.3 | High: 4508.7 | Low: 4336.6 | R2: 4575.6 | R1: 4470.5 | Pivot: 4403.5 | S1: 4298.4 | S2: 4231.4 | Weekly Pivot: 4426.4 | TPI: 0.23 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below 4426.4, the path of least resistance stays lower.
Entry: Sell at 4403.5 or below 4298.4.
Stop: Above 4470.5
Primary Target: 4298.4
Extended Target: 4231.4
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 4470.5 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $24,617 | Maintenance: $22,379 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
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Silver (SIEN26) | TPI: 0.26 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 63.715
DESK NOTE: Silver followed gold straight down, $4.87 lower and offered into the close as the yield move stripped the metal of any safe-haven cover.
TECH: Close: 69.103 | High: 74.380 | Low: 67.700 | R2: 77.075 | R1: 73.090 | Pivot: 70.395 | S1: 66.410 | S2: 63.715 | Weekly Pivot: 71.385 | TPI: 0.26 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Beneath 71.385 on the weekly read, bears remain in front.
Entry: Sell at 70.395 or below 66.410.
Stop: Above 73.090
Primary Target: 66.410
Extended Target: 63.715
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 73.090 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $40,579 | Maintenance: $36,890 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)
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Copper (CPEN26) | TPI: 0.20 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 6.0655
DESK NOTE: Copper gave back 25 cents and closed soft, erasing the prior session's lift as macro pressure overwhelmed the recovery attempt.
TECH: Close: 6.2845 | High: 6.5370 | Low: 6.2465 | R2: 6.6465 | R1: 6.4655 | Pivot: 6.3560 | S1: 6.1750 | S2: 6.0655 | Weekly Pivot: 6.4095 | TPI: 0.20 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Weekly resistance intact at 6.4095; sellers retain the edge.
Entry: Sell at 6.3560 or below 6.1750.
Stop: Above 6.4655
Primary Target: 6.1750
Extended Target: 6.0655
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 6.4655 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $13,200 | Maintenance: $12,000 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)
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ENERGY
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Crude Oil (CLEN26) | TPI: 0.29 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 87.33
DESK NOTE: Crude dropped $2.50 and settled near the lows, the tape shifting from grind to outright liquidation as risk appetite drained across the board.
TECH: Close: 90.54 | High: 93.63 | Low: 89.68 | R2: 95.23 | R1: 92.89 | Pivot: 91.28 | S1: 88.94 | S2: 87.33 | Weekly Pivot: 92.00 | TPI: 0.29 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Acceptance below 92.00 keeps sellers in command.
Entry: Sell at 91.28 or below 88.94.
Stop: Above 92.89
Primary Target: 88.94
Extended Target: 87.33
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 92.89 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $12,294 | Maintenance: $10,941 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)
Mini equivalent: E-Mini Crude (QMEN26) — same levels apply, half size. Margin: ~$6,147 init / ~$5,470 maint.
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Natural Gas (NGEN26) | TPI: 0.30 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 3.110
DESK NOTE: Natural gas slipped 10.7 cents and rolled over out of its recent coil, the quiet firmness giving way as sellers finally leaned on the range lows.
TECH: Close: 3.229 | High: 3.365 | Low: 3.208 | R2: 3.424 | R1: 3.327 | Pivot: 3.267 | S1: 3.170 | S2: 3.110 | Weekly Pivot: 3.241 | TPI: 0.30 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Failed trade above 3.241 leaves the tape offered.
Entry: Sell at 3.267 or below 3.170.
Stop: Above 3.327
Primary Target: 3.170
Extended Target: 3.110
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 3.327 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $6,052 | Maintenance: $5,386 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)
Mini equivalent: E-Mini Natural Gas (QGEN26) — same levels apply, quarter size. Margin: ~$1,513 init / ~$1,346 maint.
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CURRENCIES
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Euro FX (EU6M26) | TPI: 0.15 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 1.14395
DESK NOTE: Euro got run over, 92 pips lower and pinned to the lows as the firm employment number sent the dollar surging back — but stretched this far this fast, the single currency is coiled for a snap higher the moment the dollar trade gets crowded.
TECH: Close: 1.15275 | High: 1.16485 | Low: 1.15220 | R2: 1.16925 | R1: 1.16100 | Pivot: 1.15660 | S1: 1.14835 | S2: 1.14395 | Weekly Pivot: 1.15740 | TPI: 0.15 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The Weekly Pivot at 1.15740 remains the line to reclaim. Extended read — TPI 0.15 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Entry: Sell at 1.15660 or below 1.14835.
Stop: Above 1.16100
Primary Target: 1.14835
Extended Target: 1.14395
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 1.16100 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,640 | Maintenance: $2,400 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)
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Japanese Yen (JY6M26) | TPI: 0.31 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 0.0062265
DESK NOTE: Yen drifted 11 ticks lower, soft but orderly, dollar strength pressuring the tape without the range expansion to call it a full breakdown.
TECH: Close: 0.0062480 | High: 0.0062650 | Low: 0.0062405 | R2: 0.0062755 | R1: 0.0062620 | Pivot: 0.0062510 | S1: 0.0062375 | S2: 0.0062265 | Weekly Pivot: 0.0062580 | TPI: 0.31 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Rallies stay suspect beneath 0.0062580.
Entry: Sell at 0.0062510 or below 0.0062375.
Stop: Above 0.0062620
Primary Target: 0.0062375
Extended Target: 0.0062265
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 0.0062620 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,860 | Maintenance: $2,600 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)
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INDICES
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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (ENQM26) | TPI: 0.22 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 27769.25
DESK NOTE: Nasdaq wore the selloff worst of the index group, down a brutal 1,462 points and dumped onto its lows after the jobs report slammed the door on near-term cuts — the megacap leadership that had carried the tape simply rolled over.
TECH: Close: 29026.50 | High: 30422.00 | Low: 28781.25 | R2: 31050.75 | R1: 30038.50 | Pivot: 29410.00 | S1: 28397.75 | S2: 27769.25 | Weekly Pivot: 29538.50 | TPI: 0.22 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Structure stays heavy while price holds below 29538.50.
Entry: Sell at 29410.00 or below 28397.75.
Stop: Above 30038.50
Primary Target: 28397.75
Extended Target: 27769.25
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 30038.50 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $43,780 | Maintenance: $38,964 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)
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E-Mini Dow (YMM26) | TPI: 0.25 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 50061
DESK NOTE: The Dow shed 735 points and closed near the bottom of the range, blue chips offering no refuge from the rate-driven repricing.
TECH: Close: 50936 | High: 51849 | Low: 50736 | R2: 52287 | R1: 51611 | Pivot: 51174 | S1: 50498 | S2: 50061 | Weekly Pivot: 51174 | TPI: 0.25 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The weekly read stays negative below 51174.
Entry: Sell at 51174 or below 50498.
Stop: Above 51611
Primary Target: 50498
Extended Target: 50061
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 51611 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $19,058 | Maintenance: $16,961 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)
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E-Mini Russell 2000 (RTYM26) | TPI: 0.25 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 2738.5
DESK NOTE: Small caps dropped 104.5 points and closed near the bottom, the rate-sensitive corner taking the yield back-up hard.
TECH: Close: 2834.8 | High: 2934.5 | Low: 2812.4 | R2: 2982.7 | R1: 2908.7 | Pivot: 2860.6 | S1: 2786.6 | S2: 2738.5 | Weekly Pivot: 2865.2 | TPI: 0.25 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No reclaim of 2865.2; downside structure remains intact.
Entry: Sell at 2860.6 or below 2786.6.
Stop: Above 2908.7
Primary Target: 2786.6
Extended Target: 2738.5
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 2908.7 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $13,732 | Maintenance: $12,221 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)
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E-Mini S&P 500 (EPM26) | TPI: 0.25 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 7218.25
DESK NOTE: The S&P fell 200.5 points and settled on its lows, the broad market handing back midweek's bounce and then some as payrolls reset the rate path.
TECH: Close: 7400.50 | High: 7591.00 | Low: 7359.00 | R2: 7682.25 | R1: 7541.25 | Pivot: 7450.25 | S1: 7309.25 | S2: 7218.25 | Weekly Pivot: 7464.00 | TPI: 0.25 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The offer stays in front while 7464.00 caps the tape.
Entry: Sell at 7450.25 or below 7309.25.
Stop: Above 7541.25
Primary Target: 7309.25
Extended Target: 7218.25
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 7541.25 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $31,150 | Maintenance: $27,723 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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RATES
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10-Year T-Note (TYAU26) | TPI: 0.22 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 108-15'5
DESK NOTE: The ten-year was the epicenter — 16.5 ticks lower as a firm jobs number drove yields sharply higher and forced the front end to reprice fewer cuts. Monday's Treasury buyback operation is the next thing the desk is watching for any stabilization in a tape that found none Friday.
TECH: Close: 109-02'5 | High: 109-24'0 | Low: 108-31'0 | R2: 110-01'5 | R1: 109-18'0 | Pivot: 109-08'5 | S1: 108-25'0 | S2: 108-15'5 | Weekly Pivot: 109-11'0 | TPI: 0.22 | Min Fluc: 0.015625 ($15.625)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Bears keep control unless 109-11'0 is recovered on settlement.
Entry: Sell at 109-08'5 or below 108-25'0.
Stop: Above 109-18'0
Primary Target: 108-25'0
Extended Target: 108-15'5
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 109-18'0 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,063 | Maintenance: $1,875 | Min Fluc: 0.015625 ($15.625)
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CRYPTO
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Micro Bitcoin (MBTM26) | TPI: 0.12 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 58585
DESK NOTE: Bitcoin cratered, roughly 3,600 points lower and settled dead on its low with no buyer anywhere in the move. This stretched into the lows, the violent snapback is the trade that punishes anyone chasing it down here — caution over conviction.
TECH: Close: 60150 | High: 62500 | Low: 60150 | R2: 63285 | R1: 61715 | Pivot: 60935 | S1: 59365 | S2: 58585 | Weekly Pivot: 64910 | TPI: 0.12 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below 64910, the path of least resistance stays lower. Extended read — TPI 0.12 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Entry: Sell at 60935 or below 59365.
Stop: Above 61715
Primary Target: 59365
Extended Target: 58585
Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target
Invalidation: a daily settle above 61715 voids the short — stand aside.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,585 | Maintenance: $2,300 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)
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The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of RJO Futures, a StoneX Company. This analysis represents the author's independent research and technical methodology.
Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.
This material was prepared using CQG data feed.
