By: Harry Altham, Energy Analyst, Market Analysis EMEA & Asia
The oil benchmarks have made a quieter but firm start to Tuesday, after a day in which WTI rose by 2.7% ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting in which delegates are expected to announce another output cut in the attempt to achieve Saudi Arabia’s $90/bbl price objective. There are reports that the cut could be as much as 1M bbd for November (according to unnamed delegates), which some commentators believe may yet be insufficient in securing the aforementioned price target. An empirical approach to the present fundamentals leads us to believe benchmark WTI should be trading in the $75-$80 range, although the current unpredictability within the market brings a warranted volatility premium (not forgetting liquidity as well). It therefore stands to reason that OPEC+, while analysing the market ahead of the decision, will see an output cut as being justified within current market conditions. We expect price action to occur in the event of a deviation from a 1M bbd production cut; watch out for the psychological resistance marker of $90 for the December Brent contract.
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