Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 04 Aug 2023, 16:04

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 4 - Wall Street interpreted this morning's jobs report as one that would allow the Federal Reserve to pivot its monetary policy sooner rather than later. I disagree, but my opinion doesn't matter to Wall Street. Perception is reality, and Wall Street perceives this morning's jobs report as being supportive of an earlier pivot. As such, stocks are trading higher, with the VIX slipping lower to trade back below 15. The dollar index is notably lower below 101.8 as it follows Treasury yields lower. Yields on 10-year Treasuries hit a new nine-month high near 4.21% earlier in the session, but they are now trading near 4.08%. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.82% after setting fresh two-week lows. Crude oil prices pushed to fresh 15-week highs at midday, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed to mostly higher. Soybean prices are the strength of the grain and oilseed markets at midday, with traders focused on the risk of below-trend yields on smaller acreage tightening up next year's balance sheet. Chicago wheat prices remain strong as well going into the weekend amid new worries that the escalating war in the Black Sea could now start to threaten supplies from Russia as well as Ukraine, which is a factor helping to support crude oil prices as well. Corn finds support from those dynamics as well, while Kansas City wheat receives the short end of the inter-market spreads. Minneapolis wheat maintains modest support on drought impacting the far Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies spring wheat crop.

StoneX's customer survey revealed expectations for this year's U.S. soybean crop to average 50.5 bushels per acre, down from USDA's current estimate of 52.0 bpa. The balance sheet below shows the implications of such a reduction in yield. It makes the balance sheet very tight. August weather plays a big role in determining soybean yields, although there is some evidence that stress earlier this season may have capped that yield potential. I can't rule out an above-trend soybean yield, but I'm skeptical that we'll reach one at this point. Another unknown is Chinese buying. It's estimated that China will have added 12 million metric tons, or 440 million bushels, to its reserves from May to September due to larger imports than crush demand. Will it keep those soybeans in its reserves, or will it choose to use at least a portion of them to reduce purchases from the United States October through January due to geopolitical tensions between our two countries? Only China knows the answer to that. It's new-crop purchases picked up notably recently, but they still lag their normal purchase rate by a large margin.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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