Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 07 Jul 2023, 15:59

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 7 - Stocks are trying to find direction at mid-day, with the major indexes trading both sides of unchanged after receiving contrasting U.S. labor data this morning. The VIX has fallen to trade around the 14.7 level after pushing near 17 yesterday. The dollar is sharply lower today, wiping out the week's gains to trade near 102 at the time of writing, while treasuries are also under pressure with 10-year yields trading around 4.04% and 2-year yields trading around 4.93%. Crude oil is looking to finish off a positive week on a strong note, with the nearby WTI contract pushing above the $73 level for the first time in a month, while the ags are mostly in the red.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in Beijing yesterday to meet with Chinese officials in an attempt to stabilize relations between the two countries amid growing tensions. Yellen made clear in her comments that a de-coupling of the world's two largest economies is in no one's best interest, saying that it would be "destabilizing for the global economy" but still took aim at China's "unfair economic practices," saying the U.S. would coordinate with its allies to combat them. This is likely a shot at China's decision earlier this week to restrict the export of gallium and germanium, metals with broad uses in the tech sector. High-tech manufacturing has become a major source of tension between the two sides, with the U.S. and other allies restricting China's access to some chipmaking technology. The rising tensions have weighed on markets, especially with China's economic recovery looking less impressive than expected in 2023 and increasing concerns of a broader slowdown if the divide were to grow. This week's visit should help ease some of that concern, with Chinese officials also expressing their commitment to stabilizing trade ties, and could potentially pave the way for higher level visits in the near future that could ease these concerns further.

Traders are trying to digest a huge week of labor market data, balancing the extremely firm results earlier in the week with today's weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls numbers. Even with June's nonfarm payrolls coming in at their lowest level since December 2020, unemployment remains extremely low relative to historical levels and pressures from wage inflation continue to nag. A 25 basis point hike at the Fed's July meeting now seems all but certain, but the real debate shifts to what they will do for the remainder of 2023. Continued hawkish comments from the Fed point to another rate hike in the back-end of 2023, but traders remain optimistic about an upcoming pivot, as they have for most of the year. Despite some cracks showing, the U.S. economy has overall proven very resilient, though more pain may be needed to finally tame lingering inflation.

More excitement is on tap for next week, with key inflationary data on its way as U.S. CPI and PPI readings for June are set to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In addition to several consumer sentiment readings, the market will also be watching next week's bank earnings reports closely. J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are all due to report Q2 earnings next Friday, with several smaller banks reporting earlier in the week. The banking sector has left the spotlight after the turmoil seen earlier in the year and received a boost last week after passing Fed stress tests but many in the sector have warned of the ongoing risks to the smaller regional banks in the environment of continually rising rates.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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