By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
June 22 - The tech sector came under pressure today as Treasury yields push higher, along with the dollar. The VIX is trading near 17, while the dollar index trades near 101.0, putting it on the cusp of posting its highest close in 13 months. That comes as 2-year Treasuries trade at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, while 10-year yields trade near 4.51%. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 at midday, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector came under pressure today, with the exception of soybean oil prices, where last week's weakness uncovered solid end user buying once again, providing a lift for the new-crop soybean contracts.
The biofuel program outlined by the Environmental Protection Agency this spring is expected to keep demand for biomass diesel feedstocks - both domestic and imported - strong through next year, and likely longer. As such, it was expected that end users would see last week's fund liquidation in the edible oils markets as a gift for extending coverage, and they're taking advantage of that today. The support for soybeans comes in the new crop months, as few people are worried about us running out of soybeans ahead of this year's harvest. However, the risk of running out of soybeans before the 2027 harvest is still a concern, especially if China keeps its promise to import 25 mmt of US soybeans in the coming year, on top of the domestic demand created by the biofuel program. Meanwhile, wheat prices are doing what wheat prices do at harvest, and corn prices are doing what corn prices do in late June in the absence of a weather threat. One will have trouble sustaining a rally without the other longer term.
U.S. Vice President Vance spent his weekend meeting with Iranian negotiators. Vance briefed reporters before returning to Washington, D.C. He stated, among other things, that if Iran wants its frozen funds back, it can get them back via U.S. ag commodity imports. That suggests that U.S. negotiators are leveraging Iran's frozen funds to try to increase export demand for U.S. Ag commodities. The graphic below shows Iranian imports of corn, soybeans and wheat over the past decade. It has imported very little from the United States since 2018, but it did import a total of 18 mmt of corn, soybeans and wheat in calendar year 2025. The makeup of last year's imports from the global market included 488 million bushels of corn, 92 million bushels of soybeans, and 117 million bushels of wheat. My confidence that it will use the frozen funds to replace that demand with U.S. Ag commodities is low, but the impact on the U.S. balance sheets would certainly be felt.
USDA inspected 57.3 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending June 18, along with 8.9 million bushels of soybeans, 14.4 million bushels of wheat, and 1.5 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date corn export inspections now exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record high export target by 159 million bushels, although that gap keeps shrinking. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 53 million bushels, and that total stabilized this week.
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June 24 – Stock futures bounced modestly overnight, following sharp losses in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring developments out of the Middle East while positioning for tomorrow’s pile of economic data, including the latest PCE inflation numbers. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades at fresh 13-month highs near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16% as the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil prices are trading at fresh 16-week lows near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were modestly higher as a rule overnight.
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