Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 11 Nov 2022, 16:31

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

November 11 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day after a strong start to the morning on the back of yesterday's rally. The Nasdaq is currently leading the major indices, up 1.3% at the time of writing, while the S&P 500 holds onto gains of 0.5%, and the Dow Jones is in the red, down -0.7% on the day. The VIX is falling again, sitting near 22.7 as optimism remains on Wall Street following yesterday's better than expected CPI reading. The dollar continues its descent, now down below 107 after falling hard yesterday as well. U.S. treasury markets are closed today for Veteran's Day, while commodities are largely firm across the board.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest since July, with today's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showing a reading of 54.7. This is an 8.7% drop from the month prior and breaks a four month streak of month-on-month improvements following June's record low of 50. Consumer views of current economic conditions declined 11.9% from October, with its index reading coming in at 57.8, while the index of consumer expectations fell 6.2% to a reading of 52.7. Inflation expectations rose, with consumers expecting year ahead inflation of 5.1% compared to October's 5.0%, while 5-year inflation expectations increased to 3.0% vs. the 2.9% seen in the month prior. Consumers' views on major purchases worsened in November, with 83% of respondents believing it is a bad time to buy a house, 74% believing it's a bad time to buy a vehicle, and 62% believing it's a bad time to buy a major household item. Michigan's Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu also noted in the summary of the results that "instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election," perhaps providing the market a reminder of the reality of the current economic situation despite the current upbeat tune following yesterday's CPI reading.

Russian officials today announced the completion of their withdrawal from Kherson, claiming to not have lost any soldiers or military equipment in the process. Local reports paint a different picture of an unorganized scramble to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, with soldiers looting what they could and leaving behind large amounts of equipment and uniforms as deserters changed into civilian clothes. Ukrainian intelligence reports many Russian soldiers still left in and around the city, now cut off from their positions on the eastern bank as the last remaining bridge connecting the two sides was destroyed. Kherson was the only regional capital captured by the Russians in their initial invasion and adds to the list of recent battlefield losses.

U.N. negotiations with Russia began in Geneva today, with just over a week to keep the current deal for a Ukrainian export corridor alive as it is set to expire on 11/19. Russia has indicated its desire to quit the deal, after having backed out for four days in October before abruptly re-joining. Ukraine, Turkey, and the U.N. all remain optimistic that an agreement for renewal can be made, but Russia's opposition may grow as they look for any means possible to weaken Ukraine following their poor performance on the battlefield. If the sides are unable to reach an agreement, Ukrainian food commodities would again be cut off from the global market as they were for the first five months of the war.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
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Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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