Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 18 Nov 2022, 16:18

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

November 18 - This morning's strength is fading in the stock market, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 still slightly positive on the day while the Nasdaq dips into the red and the VIX cools slightly to trade near 23.7 at the time of writing. The dollar is edging slightly lower to trade just under 106.5 after a back-and-forth week. Treasury markets are relatively quiet this morning, with 10-year yields just above unchanged at 3.79% while 2-year yields hang around 4.46%. Crude oil is shaping up for an ugly finish to the week, with nearby WTI trading all the way down to $77.24/barrel earlier in the morning, the lowest level seen since late September. The ags started the day lower but are attempting to rally, with soybeans leading the way higher.

U.S. existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 4.43 million in October, a 5.9% drop from the 4.71 million in September and marking the ninth consecutive month-on-month decline as the housing sector continues to struggle. Though today's figure did beat expectations of a sharper drop to 4.38 million, this is now the slowest pace of existing home sales since the pandemic low of 4.07 million hit in May 2020. Excluding May 2020, this would be the lowest level of sales seen in the U.S. since December 2011. Existing home sales fell across all regions of the country, with the largest decline seen in the West (-9.1%) and the smallest decline seen in the South (-4.8%). Median sales prices also fell in October to come in at $379,100. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline in sales prices and the lowest level seen since February, marking an 8.4% decline from June's record high of $413,800. Properties remained on the market for an average of 21 days in October, a slight increase from the 19 seen in September. With buyers' budgets hit by inflation and an uncertain economic outlook, along with rapidly-rising interest rates, the housing sector looks to continue its struggle for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.8% in October, much sharper than the 0.4% decline expected and down from the 0.5% drop seen in September. The LEI is a leading indicator calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization for business and economic research, using a combination of ten key economic variables. Historically, the index turns downward ahead of recessionary times and upward ahead of expansionary times. The LEI has now fallen for eight consecutive months, with Conference Board leadership suggesting the economy is potentially already in a recession and maintaining a negative outlook through mid-2023. Fed officials have said that they know in order to tame out of control inflation they must inflict some pain on the economy. After recently seeing recent positive inflationary readings and an assortment of other negative economic data, that prediction seems to be coming to fruition.

North Korea test-fired another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, continuing to add to their record level of weapons testing in 2022 following a period of slowdown over the last few years. The South Korean military estimated that the missile flew to a maximum altitude of 6,100 km, slightly below their record launch of 6,249 km back in March. This is now the eighth such ICBM tested by North Korea this year, missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads that are now estimated to have the range to reach the mainland U.S. as the country's weapons program continues its advancement despite heavy sanctions. Military officials from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan have all vowed to step up security in the region, drawing the ire of both North Korea and China. President Biden touched on this topic in his sit down with Xi Jinping earlier in the week; if China doesn't want to see an increased U.S. military presence in the area, they'll have to attempt to reign in the unpredictable North Korean leader.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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