Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 15:49

Today's Perspective Video: November WASDE is at Risk

October 24 – This morning’s softer than expected CPI print was a breath of fresh air for Wall Street, pushing the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new all-time highs today as rate cut expectations at next week’s FOMC meeting now look all but certain. It’s also raising expectations for an additional cut at the subsequent December meeting, with CME’s FedWatch showing the probability of such a cut at roughly 96% today, up another 5% from yesterday. That breath of fresh air appears to be combined with a sigh of relief for Wall Street as well, with the VIX falling notably today to a two-week low around 16.4 at the time of writing. The dollar is hovering near unchanged on the day, currently sitting slightly in the green around 98.97. Treasuries are seeing a similarly quiet day, with 10-year yields trading at almost exactly 4.00% while 2-year yields trade at 3.48%. Crude oil is looking to move higher for the fourth consecutive session amid the ongoing bullishness surrounding new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top two producers, with nearby WTI trading at $62.30/barrel at mid-day, up over 11% from Monday’s low. Meanwhile, the ags appear to be in a bit of a quiet risk-off mode heading into the weekend after solid weekly gains as optimism abounds ahead of upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China.

However, we may not get October inflation data if the government shutdown continues much longer, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned this morning. Today’s September data was able to be published due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics recalling some staff two weeks ago in order to assist the Social Security Administration with their annual cost of living adjustment for 2026. If the October report is canceled, it would be the first time in history not seeing a monthly U.S. CPI report since its inception back in 1919. Hopefully we can see an end to the shutdown to prevent a cancellation in favor of a delay like today’s release.

S&P Global’s Composite PMI Flash reading rose to 54.8 in October from 53.9 in the month prior, beating analysts' expectations and marking the strongest reading since July. This was driven mainly by sharply better than expected service sector performance, with Services PMI coming in at 55.2, above even the top-end estimate of 54.6 and marking the strongest reading since July. The manufacturing side was less impressive but still beat expectations of holding steady at September’s 52.0 by rising to 52.2. Given the absence of most government data amid the ongoing shutdown, these private sector readings continue to be watched more closely to give traders fresh insight into the health of the U.S. economy. Today’s PMI reading adds further optimism to this morning’s better than expected inflation print.

However, U.S. consumer sentiment took a step back according to this morning’s final October reading from the University of Michigan. The headline Consumer Sentiment reading fell to 53.6, down from October’s preliminary 55.0 that analysts expected to hold and marking the softest reading seen since May. Both the Current Economic Conditions Index and Index of Consumer Expectations fell from their preliminary readings, with the former dropping from 61.0 to 58.6 and the latter dropping from 51.2 to 50.3. Notably, this is the weakest Current Economic Conditions reading seen since August 2022; the interesting thing to keep an eye on is whether or not this pessimism actually translates to a slowdown in consumer spending moving forward.

Consumer inflation expectations diverged, with one-year expectations cooling to 4.6% from 4.7% previously while five-year expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.7% previously. This paints an interesting picture, with consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations now at their lowest in three months while five-year inflation expectations are at their highest in four months. It’s interesting to see these two metrics continue moving in opposite directions—both well above realized CPI readings. The Fed continues to maintain their commitment to a 2.0% inflation mandate, but both Wall Street (traders) and Main Street (consumers) continue to have a hard time believing that. With today’s CPI report marking the 54^th consecutive month above said 2.0% mandate, it’s not hard to understand why.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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