Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 11

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 11 Sept 2025, 16:18

September 11 – Fresh all-time highs are being made in all the major stock indexes today with bad news back to being good news as the trade sees this as a driver of a more dovish Fed ahead of next week’s meeting. The VIX is down slightly on the day, hovering below the 15 level as Wall Street remains largely calm. The dollar is down slightly as well, remaining in its recent range as it trades near the 97.5 mark. Treasuries are softer today too, with 10-year yields falling below the 4.00% mark for the first time in five months while 2-year yields trade around the 3.50% mark. The ags are largely mixed with the soy complex leading the way higher while crude oil erases yesterday’s gains with nearby WTI falling over 2% at the time of writing to hang near the $62.40/barrel level.

With jobless claims hitting a two-plus year high and inflation at the consumer level failing to provide any major surprise to the upside this morning, expectations for a rate cut from the Fed next week are all but a certainty. The odds of a 50-basis point rate cut ticked another 1-2% higher following this morning’s data releases, while the odds of seeing 100-basis points shaved off by the end of 2025 now sit at 9.6% according to CME’s FedWatch, up from 6.4% yesterday and 0% a week ago. This comes as the European Central Bank opted to leave their rates unchanged again today, holding steady since June after halving their benchmark rate to 2.0% from its peak of 4.0% last year. The Fed’s current 4.25% - 4.50% target rate is the highest of the Group of Ten (G10) central banks, but that could be changing in the months ahead.

It was a lackluster week of export sales for the grains, with corn starting the ‘25/’26 marketing year off with sales of only 21.3 million bushels in the week ending 9/4, well below the low-end analyst estimate of 35.4 million, with roughly half of the total going to Mexico. Despite the drop, cumulative corn sales of 890 million bushels remain 69.2% ahead of this time last year and at their hottest pace in four years. All wheat sales came in at 11.2 million bushels, just above the low-end estimate and marking an 11-week low. By class, the most noteworthy drop was seen in hard red winter, with the 3.4-million-bushel sales there representing their lowest since mid-June. Despite the step back, cumulative wheat sales in the ‘25/’26 marketing year total 467 million bushels, up 19.4% year-over-year and marking the strongest pace at this time in five years. Falling Russian wheat offers are likely playing a role in the slow down of U.S. wheat sales over the last couple of weeks as estimates for the country’s wheat production continue to rise on improving yields as harvest progresses northward, with Russia’s IKAR now pegging the crop at 87.0 MMT and SovEcon at 87.2 MMT, both well above USDA’s most recent 83.5 MMT estimate. It will be interesting to see if USDA addresses this on tomorrow’s September WASDE report, or if they’ll wait for more clarity.

Soybean sales came in at 19.9 million bushels in the week ending 9/4, above the low-end estimate of 14.7 million but still sharply below (-67.1%) the previous 5-year average for the week amid China’s continued absence. We still officially have zero bushels on the books destined for China, our traditional top customer by far, for the ‘25/’26 marketing year as they continue to import record amounts of Brazilian beans instead. With harvest approaching, this will come more and more into focus as traders grapple with where to put these soybeans, exacerbated by the expected record-large corn crop coming off as well. Elsewhere in the soy complex, soybean oil saw its worst week of the year with net cancellations of 6,400 metric tons for the ‘24/’25 marketing year and no sales reported for the ‘25/’26 marketing year. Soybean meal sales totaled 33,400 metric tons for the ‘24/’25 marketing year, below the low-end estimate of 50,000, while ‘25/’26 sales totaled 324,100 metric tons, with over 70% of that going to the Philippines.

22% of U.S. soybean areas are experiencing some level of drought, according to this morning’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s up 6% week-on-week and marks a 19% jump from the 3% seen at the start of August, highlighting the dry shift seen across the U.S. over the last month-plus. Corn and soybean ratings have both fallen by 5% over this span; that’s 1% less than average on the corn side but 2% more than average on the soybean side. Interestingly, however, expectations are for corn yield to see a bigger cut than soybeans on tomorrow’s USDA report, with the average corn yield estimate seen at 186.2 bushels per acre (2.6 bpa below August) and the average soybean yield estimate seen at 53.3 bushels per acre (0.3 bpa below August). With the early stages of harvest now underway in portions of the Midwest, we should have a better idea of the size of the crop soon, allowing the market to shift more focus to the demand side of the equation, with plenty of questions there as well.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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