Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 19 Apr 2022, 13:33

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 19 – Stock futures traded both sides of unchanged overnight, as Wall Street balances earnings reports against rising interest rates, shutdowns in China and the intensifying war in Ukraine. The VIX is trading near 23 this morning, reflecting a steady uneasiness on Wall Street. The dollar index posted a fresh two-year high above 101.0 as yields on 10-year Treasuries topped 2.92%, which is their highest level since December 2018. Crude oil prices were 3% lower as they pulled back from yesterday’s three-week highs, while natural gas pulled back from yesterday’s 13-year highs. The Ags slipped into the red this morning, after corn prices posted fresh contract highs overnight amid slow planting woes, while wheat prices followed a similar pattern following USDA’s crop progress report showed deteriorating conditions in the Plains once again.

U.S. housing starts rose to an annualized rate of 1.793 million units in March, up from analyst expectations of 1.750 million. Furthermore, the February data was revised to 1.788 million starts, up from the 1.769 million reported last month. Permits issued for new starts is another number closely monitored for future housing construction activity. Housing permits rose to an annualized rate of 1.873 million in March, beating analyst expectations of 1.830 million and up from an upwardly revised 1.865 million issued the previous month. This is good news for the housing industry, suggesting that demand for houses remains strong, despite rising mortgage rates. Builders say they could build more houses, although they might lack cabinets or other necessities due to supply chain problems.

APK Inform reports that rail cars continue to back up at Ukraine’s western border as Ukraine seeks to export grain over land to Poland and Romania, where it can be loaded onto ships. Nearly 30K cars were backed up as of last week, according to the local consultancy, up 28% over the past two weeks. Rail cars arriving at the border must be manually jacked up for a new carriage to be placed under them that works on Europe’s narrower rail lines, or the grain must be transferred to cars from the west. Ukraine shifted grain movement from its ports, which are blocked by Russia, to the west to move over land, but that dramatically reduces the volume that it can move. But the rail systems in Poland and Romania are overwhelmed with the new volume, even with the congestion at Ukraine’s border slowing movement. Ukraine hopes to make the infrastructure adjustments necessary to export more than 2 million metric tons per month over land, but it’s still at just a fraction of that volume currently. Exports were well over 6 mmt per month prior to the Russian invasion.

Russian troops are now in position for an intensified assault on eastern areas of Ukraine now that they’ve repositioned from their attack on the capital city of Kyiv. The United States and other NATO countries stepped up their provision of weapons to Ukraine after seeing the success that Ukraine has had in holding off Russia. Western forces provided token support in the early days of the war, believing that Ukraine would quickly fall. However, the West now believes that Ukraine has a chance at defeating Russia. That’s both good and bad for the Ukrainian people. Chasing Russian troops back home to Moscow would obviously be a desired end for the people of Ukraine, but Russian President Putin is not likely to concede defeat. Rather, he would be expected to do “whatever is necessary” to gain some victory that he could claim back home, which means more of a scorched-earth approach to the war. That means that the worst may still be ahead for Ukraine as Russia seeks to at least claim eastern portions of Ukraine, along with the ports in the South to cut off Ukraine’s ability to do significant commerce to support its economy. It also means that the list of war atrocities likely increases in length, meaning that it will likely be a long time before the world is willing to remove sanctions from Russia. A worst-case scenario for Ukraine would be defeat, but another bad outcome for them would be a cease-fire agreement that leaves things at a draw, which would leave Russian troops in place for continued tensions and intrusions for years to come, which would also have a chilling impact on commodity production and exports.

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell again this week, although they remain just above record low levels for mid-April set in 1996. A short crop is now all but assured – we just don’t yet know how short. USDA statisticians will be walking fields to derive their estimate for the May 12^th WASDE report starting in 10 days, but that will be a challenge, considering the lateness of the crop. U.S. corn planting advanced to 4% as of Sunday, up from 2% the previous two weeks, but below the five-year average of 6%. Farmers are nervous, as are the markets, although I still expect things to open up enough at this point by mid-May to get the crop planted, although progress bears monitoring.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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